date:2009-05-01T04:32:00
source:Embassy Wellington
origin:09WELLINGTON107
destination:VZCZCXRO4018 PP RUEHCHI RUEHFK RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHPB DE
RUEHWL #0107/01 1210432 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 010432Z MAY 09 FM AMEMBASSY
WELLINGTON TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5849 INFO RUEHZU/ASIAN
PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION PRIORITY RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
PRIORITY 5504 RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA PRIORITY 0864 RUEHBN/AMCONSUL
MELBOURNE PRIORITY 0136 RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 0836
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000107

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/ANP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2024
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, PGOV, NZ
SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND: PIF TO SUSPEND FIJI ON MAY 2

Classified By: Acting DCM Margaret B. McKean; Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)

1. (U) On May 1, Australian media reported that Fijian
military leader Bainimarama offered to hold a summit with
Australia and New Zealand to persuade both countries that
Bainimarama's proposed timetable for a return to democracy in
Fiji is necessary. Bainimarama further predicted that other
PIF members would not support Fiji's suspension from the
Pacific Island Forum (PIF). (Note: If the PIF does agree to
suspend Fiji, it will be the first time that a PIF member
state is suspended. End Note.) In remarks to the press on
April 30, New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully assured
reporters that Fiji's suspension will be automatic as of May
2 because Fiji has not met the May 1 deadline for setting an
election date by year's end -- as demanded by the Pacific
Island Forum leaders earlier this year. McCully further
added that the PIF Secretariat would remain in Suva for the
time being, noting that any retaliatory action by the Fijian
authorities that affects PIF operations likely would prompt
further review among member states. McCully's statements
follow on Fijian Attorney General Sayed-Khaiyum's April 29
statements concluding that the Forum would not suspend Fiji.
McCully's response to the Attorney General's remarks was "I
admire his optimism."

2. (U) Bainimarama's media remarks affirmed that he has no
plans for an early election, and reiterated the call for a
2014 election date. The Fijian military leader said that an
election in 2009 would only return former Fijian Prime
Minister Qarase to power, and that the latter cannot be
allowed to resume the leadership of Fiji. Bainimarama asked
Australia and New Zealand to drop their demands for 2009
elections, and called on the other PIF states to not listen
to Australia and New Zealand. He also credited U.S.
Representative Eni Faleomavaega with having a better
understanding of the situation in Samoa and that
Faleomavaega's views, rather than those of Australia and New
Zealand, should form the basis of USG policy towards Fiji.

3. (C) A/DCM contacted the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
Trade (MFAT) Pacific Division on May 1, and spoke with Fiji
desk officer Brian Hewson about next steps. The MFAT
official said that the Ministry had received a draft letter
from the Forum Chair (Niuean Prime Minister Tolagi)
confirming Fiji's suspension on May 2 after the deadline of
May 1 had passed. The letter would note the Forum's deep
regret that the regime in Suva did not take the actions
recommended by Forum leaders, and as a consequence, the PIF
leaders have no choice but to confirm Fiji's suspension from
PIF activities.

4. (C) Hewson noted that New Zealand will not issue a
statement in response to Bainimarama's summit proposal or
anything further on the Forum's action until after the Forum
Chair makes the news public -- which will likely be May 2.
MFAT has concluded that Bainimarama's recent statements and
summit proposal were a last-ditch effort to delay suspension
and try to drive a wedge between Australia and New Zealand on
the one hand, and the rest of the PIF members. He also
stated that the summit proposal was an attempt to convince a
naive audience that Fiji is willing to engage and only
Australia and New Zealand are the problem. Hewson said that
Bainimarama had floated a similar proposal before, and
referred to the period just prior to the expulsion of the New
Zealand acting High Commissioner in late 2008 when the Fiji
authorities' offered to send a three-person delegation to New
Zealand to sort out differences. Hewson confirmed that a
summit meeting with Fiji on Bainimarama's terms was a
non-starter.

5. (C) New Zealand and Australia are consulting closely on
Fiji, said Hewson, particularly with respect to what the
post-May 1 environment will be like after the suspension is
announced. Neither country has a clear idea as to how the
Fijian authorities will react and whether some of the small
island states who are dependent on Fiji for transport and
other linkages will be negatively affected.

6. (C) The British High Commissioner recently had lunch
with FM McCully, who reportedly said that it may be time to
push Fiji down the list of priority issues until conditions
allow for improved engagement. He allegedly indicated that
perhaps things need to get much worse in Fiji before Fijians
themselves decide to create the circumstances under which the
international community can help things improve.

KEEGAN