date:2007-05-08T03:57:00
source:Embassy Wellington
origin:07WELLINGTON361
destination:VZCZCXYZ0002 OO RUEHWEB DE RUEHWL #0361/01 1280357 ZNY
CCCCC ZZH O 080357Z MAY 07 FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON TO RUEHC/SECSTATE
WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4235 INFO RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM
HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 4830

C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000361

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR P, EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP
STATE PASS TO USDA FOR FAS MIKE WOOLSEY AND JIM DEVER
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA
STATE PASS USTR
OSD FOR USDP/APSA/SSEA JESSICA POWERS
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ETRD, MARR, NZ
SUBJECT: DEFENSE AND TRADE MINISTER PHIL GOFF'S TRIP TO
WASHINGTON

REF: A. WELLINGTON 194
B. WELLINGTON 351

Classified By: Acting DCM Katherine B. Hadda,
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1. (C) Summary: New Zealand's Minister for Defense and
Trade Phil Goff sees his May 9-11 visit to Washington as a
chance to build on the positive momentum created by PM Helen
Clark's March visit (Ref A). On the Defense side, Goff will
express hope that both countries can continue to identify
joint areas of military cooperation as our resources and
interests allow. He will stop short of offering any
substantive suggestions for new areas in which to work
together, recognizing that it will be up to the United States
to decide what cooperation is feasible for us under modified
waiver restrictions. Goff will also wish to talk about his
recent trip to Afghanistan and his meetings with U.S.
military officials there, as well as exchange views on the
Pacific, Iran, and N.Korea. He will for political reasons
raise NZ's interest in selling its retired A-4 planes, but
not press the issue as he knows the USG review of the sale
remains frozen. He will also emphasize that failure to sell
the planes will not decrease NZ's long-range military
spending increases.
2. (C) Goff realizes that U.S. officials will remain unable
to consider a bilateral FTA with New Zealand absent renewal
of Trade Promotion Authority, but he will stress that the GNZ
remains strongly interested in starting negotiations as soon
as possible. He will also wish to share views on prospects
for successful conclusion of WTO Doha Round negotiations and
discuss the U.S. Farm Bill. Goff, widely considered to be
among the most intelligent and hard-working of Labour's MPs,
will arrive ready to discuss issues in detail. End Summary.

--------------------
Defense and Security
--------------------

3. (C) According to Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
(MFAT) and Ministry of Defence (MoD) officials, Minister Goff
sees his visit as an opportunity to let Defense Secretary
Gates, National Security Advisor Hadley, and other U.S.
officials know that New Zealand is interested in
strengthening bilateral military relations as part of our
efforts to improve US-NZ ties. Goff will highlight the areas
in which he believes New Zealand is adding value to regional
and global security, and note the GNZ's interest in expanding
cooperation where interests and policies allow. He will
probably not suggest anything specific, however, in large
part because he does not want to appear presumptuous about
how we will wish to cooperate under a modified USG military
waiver process. That being said, Goff will likely express
appreciation for both the recent USG decision to streamline
some waivers as well as the positive first round of NZDF-DoD
working level consultations. He would value USG views on
both initiatives, but will probably not actively lobby for
this, again in deference to us.

4. (C) Goff will stress that although New Zealand has only
extended its military commitments in Afghanistan through
September 2008, the Government intends to remain there for
the foreseeable future, as long as needed. He will also wish
to share his observations from his recent visit to
Afghanistan, which included a visit to New Zealand's
Provincial Reconstruction Team in Bamiyan as well as
discussions with ISAF Commander McNeil and Ambassador Wood
at a dinner that Goff hosted in Kabul. Finally, Goff will
note that New Zealand understands and appreciates our desire
that NZDF Special Forces return to Afghanistan, but will
reiterate that this will not be possible for a year at
minimum, given the NZDF's other regional commitments.

5. (C) Minister Goff will be interested in exchanging views
on Iran and North Korea (NB: he is also the Minister for
Disarmament) and the Pacific Island Countries. He will also
raise E. Timor, where he will visit shortly after his trip to
Washington and Paris. In his meeting with A/S Hill (and
possibly Secretary Gates) he may raise New Zealand's
application to sell its retired A-4 planes to a private U.S.
company. He sees mentioning the issue as a political
necessity, since the opposition National Party has criticized

the Government's inclusion of revenues from the sale in the
NZDF's Long Term Development Plan (LTDP) budget. But Goff
recognizes that the USG review of the sale is frozen for the
foreseeable future, so will not press the matter. He will
also stress that while the lack of a sale would affect NZDF's
cash flow, it will not reduce the Government's LTDP budget or
other military spending.

------------
Trade Issues
------------

6. (C) New Zealand's economy remains relatively strong
overall, with low unemployment and a projected 2007 GDP
growth rate of 2%. But manufacturers and exporters are
concerned about the highest interest rates in decades and
record high NZ dollar exchange rate. Their worries are being
exploited by the opposition National Party, which blames
Labour government spending for the problems (Ref B). Recent
NZ layoffs by manufacturers such as Fisher and Paykel in
favor of cheaper Asian labor have added to the sense that New
Zealand, with its open markets, is losing out to more
protectionist and less developed economies. All this will be
weighing on the mind of Minister Goff. He will make clear to
US officials and Congressmen that while the GNZ recognizes
that no Free Trade Agreement will be possible unless Trade
Promotion Authority is renewed, New Zealand remains highly
interested in starting negotiations as soon as possible.
Goff will also be very interested in discussing prospects for
a successful Doha round and will offer continued NZ
assistance in that direction. He will also remind his
interlocutors that collapse of talks could cause economic
contractions in New Zealand and other small economies. He
will be keen as well to share New Zealand's experience with
agricultural deregulation and to discuss the U.S. Farm Bill.

-----------------------
Hard-Charging Phil Goff
-----------------------

7. (C) Although Goff seemed reluctant to cede his Foreign
Ministry post after the 2005 general elections, he has by
all accounts settled in well to his defense and trade
portfolios. Although he has publicly disagreed with U.S.
policies at times, Goff also often talks about his close ties
to and admiration for the United States. His sister is
married to an American and lives in California, and Goff may
mention during his meetings that his four American nephews
are all involved in the U.S. military. The eldest, having
served in Iraq, is now heading to the DAO office in Embassy
Bangkok; the second is to be deployed soon from Vincenze to
Afghanistan; the third is at West Point, and the fourth is in
the ROTC at the University of Southern California. Since
being at the Ministry of Defence, Goff has also apparently
had a similar revelation to PM Clark's about the depth and
breadth of existing US-NZ military cooperation (Ref A), which
he has now seen first hand. He has also noted to us many
times that he appreciates the recent warming in US-NZ
relations.

8. (C) Goff is extremely hard working, and pulls in long
hours for both his Ministries as well as his constituents in
the Auckland suburb of Mt. Roskill. (After the Ambassador's
recent dinner hosted in Minister Goff's honor broke up at
10:30 pm, Goff returned to his office to work.) Goff shares
PM Clark's gift for detail and he will be very well versed in
all issues covered at his Washington meetings. He is also
determined to succeed -- quickly -- at anything he tries. He
recently told Emboffs that when he wished to try skydiving
out of a military plane (his first jump ever), he opted for a
water landing because that required only a day's training
instead of the two-week course required to alight on land.
He then negotiated the training down to two hours. He
confessed to having been scared during the jump, but said
mostly he was very focused on the job at hand. This sums up
his working style in a nutshell.
McCormick