date:2006-11-30T08:25:00
source:Embassy Wellington
origin:06WELLINGTON953
destination:VZCZCXYZ0009 OO RUEHWEB DE RUEHWL #0953/01 3340825 ZNY
CCCCC ZZH O 300825Z NOV 06 FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON TO RUEHC/SECSTATE
WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3559 INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 4639
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
IMMEDIATE RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE RHEHAAA/NATIONAL
SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000953

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/FO, EUR/RPM, AND EAP/ANP
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISD JESSICA POWERS
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2016
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NZ
SUBJECT: NEW NATIONAL LEADER WANTS CLOSER TIES TO U.S. BUT
WON'T CHANGE NZ'S ANTI-NUCLEAR POLICY

REF: WELLINGTON 935

Classified By: ACTING DCM KATHERINE B. HADDA,
FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) and (D)

1. (C) Summary: The opposition National Party's new leader,
John Key, says that although he favors closer relations
between the United States and New Zealand, he believes his
country should maintain its nuclear-free policy. Key is
clearly trying to remove the nuclear issue from the political
agenda, as many believe National's lack of clarity on the
matter under former leader Don Brash is one reason the party
failed to topple the Clark government in the 2005 general
elections. While Key is no doubt trying to keep his party's
faithful engaged by emphasizing that he wants closer ties
with us and other traditional allies, we regard his call for
better bilateral relations as genuine. A former investment
banker, Key has extensive experience living in the States and
working with Americans, and is generally pro-U.S. End
Summary.

2. (U) In a November 30 speech to a National Party-sponsored
seminar, the new National Party Leader John Key said there is
no scope for major changes in New Zealand's foreign policy
and he wishes to cooperate closely with the Labour
Government. While noting this is not the time for formal
policy announcements, Key nevertheless articulated three
points he said would be central as National develops a new
way forward:

-- A National-led Government would engage the public more
closely on defense-related issues and strategies. Key noted
that there had not been a government white paper on defense
since 1997.

-- New Zealand's security interests are not identical to
Australia's but they align closely, and aiming for
inter-operability would be a key part of National's policy
framework.

-- There are almost a quarter of a million New Zealanders of
Pacific Island heritage, and New Zealand's role in the
Pacific will be increasing in the years ahead. Key said
National will build relationships to allow New Zealand to
meet its regional responsibilities.

3. (U) Turning to the United States, Key harkened back to
ANZUS as a lynchpin of National's defense policy for most of
its history. He said that he believes New Zealand should
keep its nuclear free policy and "an ANZUS-based relationship
is not the way forward between New Zealand and the United
States." However, he stressed that he had a "much more
positive view of the United States and its role in world
affairs" than most of the Labour Government and he believes
there is much that can be done to improve US-New Zealand ties
while leaving New Zealand's foreign policy independent. He
added that improving the bilateral relationship would be a
priority for his government if elected.

4. (SBU) Embassy Media Specialist learned from local
journalists that in a media briefing after the speech, Key
said that while ANZUS is no more, he wants to move forward on
a constructive relationship with the United States.
Responding to a question about the nuclear issue, Key said he
thought National's position had been in limbo so he wanted to
make it clear that he supported the anti-nuclear legislation
and it would remain in force as long as he was the National
Party leader. He said he would take this view to caucus to
ratify. Key added that he strongly supports and wishes to
strengthen New Zealand's relationship with the United States
and traditional allies Australia and the UK, but that
National's foreign policy would be for New Zealanders and not
be "slavish" to any particular relationship of the past.

5. (SBU) When asked for a response from the press, the Media
Specialist used pre-cleared State Department guidance noting
that while our differences with New Zealand on the nuclear
issue are well known, we believe it more constructive to look
forward than back. We understand that the press intends to
report our response as "muted."

6. (C) Comment: Key is clearly trying to move beyond
National's past confused stance on the nuclear issue, which

has been a source of trouble for the party over the past few
years. In 2004, former Foreign Minister Phil Goff misquoted
a junior Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT)
staffer's notes from a meeting between a Codel and former
National leader Don Brash to claim that Brash had promised
the nuclear ban would be "gone by lunchtime." Brash denied
he intended to get rid of the ban without a referendum, but
was unable to respond credibly when Labour said that must
mean he was planning to scrap the legislation, which many
Kiwis view as an iconic part of the country's identity. When
Labour was flagging in opinion polls close to the 2005
general election, it revived the specter of National's
removing the ban, and National officials have confided to us
they think this is one reason they ultimately did not win the
race. National's Foreign Policy spokesman Murray McCully
told us almost a year ago that he was urging the caucus to
include a commitment to the ban in its platform.

7. (C) Key is also clearly trying to signal that he wants a
closer relationship with the United States. As noted reftel,
he has lived in the United States and is general favorable
towards us. Over the coming weeks and months, we will engage
more with Key and learn what he has in mind.
McCormick