date:2006-11-21T03:04:00
source:Embassy Wellington
origin:06WELLINGTON912
destination:VZCZCXRO4600 OO RUEHPB DE RUEHWL #0912 3250304 ZNY CCCCC
ZZH O 210304Z NOV 06 FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
IMMEDIATE 3508 INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 4613
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY IMMEDIATE 0613 RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE 0533 RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000912

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/FO, EUR/RPM, AND EAP/ANP
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISD JESSICA POWERS
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2016
TAGS: ASEC, PREL, PGOV, NZ, FJ
SUBJECT: GNZ CLOSELY MONITORING FIJI, MAY APPROACH
BAINIMARAMA

REF: A. MCGANN/WELLINGTON 11/20 E-MAILS (NOTAL)
B. IIR 6 927 0027 07 (NOTAL)
C. WELLINGTON 910

Classified By: Ambassador William McCormick,
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

1. (C) Summary: GNZ is aware that Commodore Bainimarama
told the U.S. DATT in Suva he will mount a coup in early
December if GOF does not meet all his demands. NZ ministries
are to review a list of possible GNZ responses if a coup
takes place. They will also likely approach Bainimarama
during his ongoing private visit to New Zealand. GNZ
officials would appreciate being kept advised about possible
USG responses to Bainimarama's threats and actions. End
Summary.

2. (C) On November 21, Pol-Econ Couns discussed
Bainimarama's threatened coup with Peter Heenan, Acting
Deputy Director of the Pacific Division in the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) and Sonja Weinberg, Policy
Officer in the Division. Both Kiwis had received a read-out
from the NZ Mission in Suva about the US DATT's discussions
with Bainimarama and the Commodore's claims that he would
instigate a coup on December 4 if his demands to the Fijian
Government were not met (Ref B).

3. (C) MFAT is taking Bainimarama's threats very seriously,
Heenan said, noting that the Commodore was due to arrive in
Wellington today to attend his granddaughter's first
communion. (According to Heenan, PM Clark herself had
approved the visit, having been asked by NZ officials to
review the case due to the sensitivities involved.) MFAT has
asked NZ's High Commissioner in Suva for his views on whether
GNZ officials should contact Bainimarama while he is here,
and what they should say. Heenan says he fully anticipates
the High Commissioner will endorse the approach. MFAT is
also considering asking the High Commissioner to contact
Bainimarama's deputies while the Commodore is in New Zealand.

4. (C) NZ officials met last week to discuss possible GNZ
responses to a coup or other change of Government in Fiji.
The most serious measures would include the withdrawal of
military assistance, termination of aid, and a withdrawal of
NZ personnel. Ministries are currently considering the costs
and benefits of all the various possible GNZ actions, given
Fiji's importance for regional disaster relief, Pacific
Island Forum activities, etc.

5. (C) Ministries will probably meet tonight or tomorrow to
review the situation, Heenan said. He added that MFAT would
appreciate being advised on any planned USG response to a
coup and any other actions taken. (FYI: We have since told
Heenan that Admiral Fallon and Ambassadors Dinger and
McCormick will likely contact the Commodore in the very near
future to tell him not to proceed with his plans. End FYI.)
McCormick