From:
<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/249763">The Guardian</a><br>
Date: 2010-02-20
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Saturday, 20 February 2010, 10:53
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 000108
SENSITIVE
NOFORN
SIPDIS
EO 12958 DECL: 02/18/2020
TAGS PREL, NATO, AF, NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS: CABINET FALLS OVER AFGHANISTAN
ELECTIONEERING
REF: A. THE HAGUE 097 B. THE HAGUE 15 C. 09 THE HAGUE 758
D. 09 THE HAGUE 663 E. 09 THE HAGUE 271
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Edwin R. Nolan
for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d)

1. (C/NF)
SUMMARY: Following a marathon 15 hour Cabinet meeting, the
Dutch Cabinet fell around 02:30 a.m., February 20 due to
fundamental disagreements and Labor Party (PvdA) posturing
ahead of local elections. Conflicts within the governing
coalition have prompted several near Cabinet crises over the
past several months, as the PvdA butted heads with coalition
partner Christian Democrats (CDA) over the Joint Strike
Fighter, decision-making during the 2003 Iraq conflict, and
now the commitment of military forces to Afghanistan after
2010. PvdA has been trying to rally its base supporters by
standing firm against a Netherlands deployment in Uruzgan
after 2010. With PM Balkenende submitting his resignation to
the Queen, the most likely outcome is new elections and months
with a caretaker government. The immediate concern for U.S.
interests is the future status of Dutch forces in Uruzgan.
According to FM Verhagen's staff Dutch forces will withdraw
from Uruzgan in 2010, but it remains to be seen what a
caretaker government could do on Afghanistan. Post will work
to build support with the Dutch government on future
deployment options that will meet Verhagen's stated goal of a
"significant Dutch contribution to the NATO mission." END
SUMMARY

2. (C)
AFGHANISTAN THE LATEST IN A STRING OF IRRITANTS FOR DUTCH
CABINET: Frustration among government ministers has been
building for the past year (reftel A). In April, the Cabinet
almost fell over a dispute over whether to purchase the Joint
Strike Fighter test aircraft (reftel E). In the fall of 2009,
the governing coalition parties split over a parliamentary
resolution asking the Cabinet to pull troops out of Uruzgan in
2010 (reftel D). And in January coalition members bitterly
disputed the results of the "Davids Committee Report" on the
Dutch government's decision in 2002-2003 to give political
support to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq (reftel B). Many of
the disputes were prompted by public statements by members of
the Cabinet characterizing internal negotiations between the
parties. Resolution of the disputes required painstaking
negotiations. In the JSF dispute, as well as debates over
increasing the retirement age and approving the Lisbon Treaty,
PvdA leader (and Deputy PM) Wouter Bos has been portrayed as
backing down from his previous positions. These tensions and
Bos's weak position set the stage for a showdown on
Afghanistan.

3. (C)
POSTURING OVER AFGHANISTAN BROUGHT DOWN GOVERNMENT: During the
past several weeks, Bos, motivated by perceptions of a weak
defense of PvdA positions, has repeatedly and categorically
claimed he would stand firm on PvdA's pledge to end the
Uruzgan mission in 2010. He has stuck with this pledge even as
major newspapers editorialized against moving Dutch troops out
of Uruzgan and questioned the logic of his position. In the
last two days, newspaper headlines have trumpeted the
Afghanistan controversy as a crisis for the government.
However, the dispute was prompted more by Bos's electioneering
than the virtues of the mission. For example, during an
eight-hour parliamentary debate on the evening of February 18,
opposition parties pummeled the coalition government over
contradictory statements in early February by D/PM Bos (PvdA)
and FM Verhagen (CDA) over whether the entire coalition had
discussed and approved a request to NATO for a letter on
ISAF's needs in Afghanistan. (Bos had originally denied he had
been consulted.) Rather than addressing the needs of
Afghanistan, the debate was a dissection of the coalition's
decision-making and public statements. Firebrand
parliamentarians Rita Verdonk and Geert Wilders called Bos a
liar. More moderate Alexander Pechtold described the
proceedings as akin to watching a divorce. Pechtold's
description proved apt as PM Balkenende today announced he
would give Queen Beatrix his resignation, which if accepted
will be followed by new elections in 1-2 months (see paragraph
5). The coalition-member PvdA insisted on the Cabinet making
an immediate decision on the post-2010 Dutch deployment in
Afghanistan. PM Balkenende's Christian Democrats (CDA)
refused, insisting on more time to weigh options to assist
NATO allies. PM Balkenende stated, "We explored today whether
trust could be restored--efforts to restore trust between the
parties have failed--given the challenges facing the
Netherlands, what is needed is strength, not the easy way
out."

4. (U)
LIKELY OUTCOME: LONG PERIOD OF CARETAKER GOVERNMENT WITH
LIMITED AUTHORITY: With the Cabinet's announcement, the PM
will submit his resignation along with that of the PvdA
Ministers to the Queen. Most likely is that the Queen accepts
the resignations, and the government falls. The remaining
coalition parties of CDA and CU become a minority caretaker
government with limited ability to pursue action on new issues
and dependent on ad hoc parliamentary majorities for each
proposed law/act. Elections would take place in 1-2 months.
The caretaker government continues until the next government
is formed, which requires several months of negotiations after
the elections. If the Queen refuses the resignations she could
appoint an outsider to work with the existing coalition
parties to reach an agreement on how to continue to govern
through the next scheduled elections in May 2011.

5. (C/NF)
IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR U.S. INTERESTS -- DUTCH FUTURE STATUS IN
URUZGAN: FM Verhagen's Chief of Staff Marcel de Vink told us
earlier Friday that the Dutch government will be unable to
retain troops in Uruzgan after 2010. There's "no way the Dutch
forces will stay in Uruzgan . . . that door is locked". Asked
about whether the Netherlands would provide force protection
for the Uruzgan PRT, De Vink responded that even a minimal
level of troops would be hard given the Labor Party's stubborn
position. Now, a caretaker government, even without the PvdA,
will find it difficult, if not impossible to do anything in
Uruzgan other than follow the set policy of withdrawal in
2010.

6. (C/NF)
COMMENT: With the building tensions in the Cabinet, the
government's fall had become almost certain. Our efforts now
turn to supporting FM Verhagen's search for a future Dutch
mission in Afghanistan that will make a significant
contribution to NATO requirements. END COMMENT.

LEVIN
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