238244 12/4/2009 17:08 09THEHAGUE730 Embassy The Hague UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY VZCZCXRO8011 RR RUEHAST RUEHDH RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHSL RUEHTM RUEHTRO DE RUEHTC #0730 3381708 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 041708Z DEC 09 FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3535 INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC RUEAEPA/HQEPA WASHDC UNCLAS THE HAGUE 000730 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV, KGHG, NL SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS: SEEKING CLEAR 2010 ROADMAP FOR CLIMATE TALKS POST-COPENHAGEN 1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Dutch will work in Copenhagen to secure a pragmatic, operational agreement at COP-15 as proposed by Danish PM Rasmussen. But they are concerned the climate negotiations process will bog down after political momentum subsides in 2010. They also fear domestic backlash in Europe if the targets contained in a COP-15 outcome fall far short of a pathway that limits global warming to two degrees centigrade. END SUMMARY. 2. (U) EconOff met with key members of the Dutch climate change team December 1 before they departed for Copenhagen: Sanne Kaasjager, lead national negotiator from the Foreign Ministry, and Gerie Jonk, mitigation group representative from the Environment Ministry (VROM). --------------------------------------------- STILL PUSHING FOR 30 PERCENT EU EMISSIONS CUT --------------------------------------------- 3. (SBU) Kaasjager said the Netherlands still wants the EU to bump up its 2020 emissions reduction commitment from 20 to 30 percent. He acknowledged this move would not persuade other developed countries to put forward more ambitious commitments; the aim would be to create a more positive atmosphere in the negotiations and encourage developing countries to accept a deal. He said he would like to see the EU announce the 30 percent commitment heading into the last weekend of COP-15 as a "final push" to political leaders. ----------------------- POST-COPENHAGEN ROADMAP ----------------------- 4. (SBU) Kaasjager said EU political leaders are facing a credibility problem at COP-15. They will support a pragmatic, operational agreement even if it falls short of their ambitions. But they are politically vulnerable because they sold the European public on a two degree limit for warming. If an agreement at COP-15 drifts too far off the two degree trajectory, it will put EU leaders in a "tough position." To compensate, Kaasjager said the EU would push hard to get a clear, strong timeline for treaty talks in early 2010. 5. (SBU) Kaasjager said the Netherlands fears the United States will be content with a political agreement at COP-15 and backtrack on an international legal agreement. EconOff assured him this fear is unfounded and the United States remains committed to expeditious work towards a legal agreement. Kaasjager emphasized the Netherlands is extremely preoccupied with having a 2010 roadmap before leaving Copenhagen. During COP-15 the Dutch will seek a clear vision of what the structure of a legal agreement will look like. They favor a structure that "uses what we have" and preserves the name "Kyoto" even if in practice it is adapted substantially to accommodate U.S. and emerging economy commitments/plans. ---------------------------------- DUTCH "FAST-START" FINANCING OFFER ---------------------------------- 6. (SBU) Jonk said the Netherlands has proposed to the EU it would provide 100 million Euros per year in 2010, 2011, and 2012 to fund "fast-start public support" for climate action in developing countries. This translates to approximately 1.5 to 2 percent of the European Commission´s estimated figure of 5 to 7 billion Euros per year needed in fast-start financing. The Netherlands remains very concerned that developing countries will balk at a climate deal without a clearer picture of financial support numbers and sources. ----- CHINA ----- 7. (SBU) Kaasjager said the Netherlands is currently plugging China´s November 26 ´offer´ into various climate models to determine how much of a deviation from Business as Usual it represents. The Dutch preliminary impression is that China can do more with relatively little effort. LEVIN 2009-12-04 17:08