ID: 09THEHAGUE673
DATE: 2009-11-06 17:10

VZCZCXYZ0000 
PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHTC #0673 3101710 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 061710Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3448
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 2845
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0433 
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1953
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 0001 
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 2261
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC 
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

C O N F I D E N T I A L THE HAGUE 000673
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2019
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NATO, AF, NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: VIEW FROM THE PRIME
MINISTER'S OFFICE
REF: A. THE HAGUE 663 B. THE HAGUE 595
Classified By: POL/ECON COUNSELOR ANDREW MANN for reasons 1.4 (b & d).

1. (C)
SUMMARY: The Dutch are unlikely to make a decision on
post-2010 Afghanistan deployment until March of next year. END
SUMMARY.

2. (C/NF) Pol/Econ Counselor met with Jeroen de Graaf,
political advisor to Dutch Prime Minister Balkenende, Nov. 6
and reviewed internal discussions on continued Dutch
engagement in Afghanistan. De Graaf noted Deputy Prime
Minister/Finance Minister/Labor Party leader Wouter Bos keeps
his cards close to the vest during Cabinet discussions, but
usually provides some indication of areas for compromise. On
the issue of the Dutch staying militarily in Uruzgan after
2010 however, he is unbending. He has told the PM, “no, no,
no” and is willing to bring down the government and take the
issue to the people in an election. He feels the Labor Party
compromised previously in supporting the decisions to
undertake the Uruzgan “lead nation” mission and then to extend
the mission until 2010. Consequently, the party has suffered
in the polls. He does not plan to make those “mistakes” again.

3. (C/NF)
De Graaf indicated Development Minister Koenders and other
Labor officials and MPs would likely support some sort of
mission in Uruzgan. Bos and other Labor MPs will not. De Graaf
said Bos orchestrated the recent parliamentary debate on the
resolutions calling for the Cabinet to be mindful of
parliamentary opposition to a military mission in Uruzgan
(reftels). Bos sat in the Parliament’s cafeteria, instructing
the Labor MPs by texting on what to say and do.

4. (C/NF)
The only way the PM thinks the Labor Party can be turned
around is by pressure from its constituents. The PM’s party,
the Christian Democrats (CDA), is intimating to the NGOs
working on development in Uruzgan their programs might have to
be shut down if the Dutch leave the province. Since recent
surveys have shown marked improvements in public health,
agricultural production and education standards in Uruzgan
since the Dutch took over “lead nation” status, the NGOs are
anxious to continue their work. The PM’s office is hoping they
will raise their concerns to senior Labor officials and urge
them to stay the course. The PM is also granting interviews to
selected publications to talk about Dutch successes on the
ground and positive developments in Uruzgan caused by Dutch
development assistance.

5. (C/NF)
De Graaf admitted these tactics would take time. The Ministry
of Defense is under instructions to determine the last
possible date for a Cabinet decision. De Graaf warned the
Prime Minister did not think the Cabinet would be able to
reach consensus on any sort of follow-on mission for Uruzgan
before the municipal elections in early March 2010. If a
decision was required beforehand, it would be “no.”
Afghanistan is not an issue of concern to the other party in
the current three-party coalition, the Christian Union (CU).
De Graaf anticipates the CU will follow the Labor Party’s lead
in any Cabinet decision (NOTE: as it did in the recent
parliamentary debate).

6. (C/NF)
Pol/Econ Counselor reviewed generally some of the recent
efforts the U.S. had taken to engage the Labor Qrecent efforts
the U.S. had taken to engage the Labor leadership and
opposition MPs (visits/meetings by USNATO Perm Rep Amb.
Daalder, Gen. McChrystal, Gen. Petraeus; NSA Gen. Jones pull
aside with Bos at G20 in Pittsburgh) as well as planned
engagement (SRAP Holbrooke phone call to Koenders; Ambassador
call on Bos). De Graaf appreciated our low-key strategy and
thought they were the best approach on this delicate issue.

LEVIN