From:
<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/215223">The Guardian</a><br>
Date: 2009-07-06
<p>
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Monday, 06 July 2009, 12:08
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 000395
SIPDIS
STATE PLEASE PASS TO WHITE HOUSE FOR THE PRESIDENT
EO 12958 DECL: 07/06/2019
TAGS PREL, OVIP">OVIP, ECON, EFIN, PINR, MOPS, NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS: OVERVIEW FOR THE PRESIDENT'S JULY 14
MEETING WITH DUTCH PRIME MINISTER BALKENENDE
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Michael F. Gallagher
for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d).

Mr. President:

1. (C)
Your July 14 meeting with Dutch Prime Minister Jan Pieter
Balkenende provides an opportunity for us to urge the Dutch to
continue as part of NATO in Afghanistan and to enlist PM
Balkenende in solving Guantanamo issues. For his part,
Balkenende will seek to continue the Dutch role in the G20 and
to find a common ground to work with us on climate change and
the Middle East.

2. (C)
Balkenende, in office through four coalitions since 2002, is a
cunning politician who does not impose his vision on coalition
partners, but maneuvers effectively to achieve the intended
goal. At first, he was dismissed as a lightweight "Harry
Potter" look-alike, but he has consistently and skillfully
delivered Cabinet support for U.S. policy objectives while
balancing fragile parliamentary majorities. Balkenende,s
current center-left coalition government ("Balkenende IV") is
held together more by fear of early elections than any unity
of vision. The financial crisis has plunged the Netherlands
into a recession likely to last through 2010, and the Cabinet
must continually defend its three relatively modest stimulus
packages against calls to do more to spur recovery. Balkenende
is also under pressure from a skeptical public to withdraw the
Netherlands, 1,800 troops from Afghanistan in 2010. His main
coalition partner, the Labor Party, is in decline, having
fared poorly in the 2006 national election and the 2009
European Parliament election, and believes rejecting a
continuing role in Afghanistan will please its base and may
win back supporters.

3. (S)
The Wilders Factor: Golden-pompadoured, maverick
parliamentarian Geert Wilders, anti-Islam, nationalist Freedom
Party remains a thorn in the coalition's side, capitalizing on
the social stresses resulting from the failure to fully
integrate almost a million Dutch Muslims, mostly of Moroccan
or Turkish descent. In existence only since 2006, the Freedom
Party, tightly controlled by Wilders, has grown to be the
Netherlands second largest, and fastest growing, party. Recent
polls suggest it could even replace Balkenende,s Christian
Democrats as the top party in 2011 parliamentary elections.
Wilders is no friend of the U.S.: he opposes Dutch military
involvement in Afghanistan; he believes development assistance
is money wasted; he opposes NATO missions outside "allied"
territory; he is against most EU initiatives; and, most
troubling, he forments fear and hatred of immigrants.

4. (C)
As a result of these currents, Balkenende,s coalition finds
itself in a precarious position and could fall within a year
(most likely after municipal elections in March 2010). The
Prime Minister is aware we want him to deliver continued Dutch
boots on the ground in Afghanistan after 2010 and help with
Guantanamo detainees. He knows there are high
risks/expectations involved in his meeting with you, but we
understand he is coming to offer as much as he thinks he can
deliver at this time.

5. (S)
Balkenende, a long-time champion of U.S.-Dutch relations,
seeks to establish a strong relationship with you and
capitalize on your popularity. The Dutch public overwhelmingly
supported your election in November, and you remain hugely
popular here as a beacon of change. Balkenende will encourage
you to view the long arc of the U.S.-Dutch relationship, not
just current bumps in the road (e.g. the likely drawdown of
Dutch forces in Afghanistan after 2010). He wants you to see
the Netherlands as America,s friend and partner, with
significant Dutch contributions to our shared foreign policy
priorities: Dutch military presence in Afghanistan and support
for NATO; support for U.S. intervention in Iraq; active
participation in the EU, NATO, and other multilateral
institutions; substantial and sustained foreign development
assistance; and a long-standing commitment to promoting human
rights, tolerance, and the rule of law. And, he will ask you
for a seat at the G-20 table in Pittsburgh as well as for a
meeting at the White House in September for the Crown Prince.

6. (C)
Balkenende will use your private, one-on-one session to
highlight your shared personal values and experiences. He
believes social organizations are more effective in promoting
change than government. His philosophy is that we must treat

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one another with dignity and respect as we live and work
together. Your Father,s Day call for fathers to accept more
responsibility in the rearing of their children resonated with
him. Balkenende will also likely use the one-on-one session to
pinpoint the political difficulties of the deliverables we are
seeking. Rather than cover a laundry list of topics, the Dutch
want the larger meeting to focus on 1) Afghanistan/Pakistan,
2) the future of the global economic system (including the
role of the G20 and how to help developing countries), 3) the
Middle East Peace Process/Iran, and 4) climate change. The
Prime Minister is anticipating other key foreign policy issues
(e.g. human rights, Russia, NATO, non-proliferation, energy
security, 400th anniversary of Henry Hudson,s voyage to
Manhattan - NY400) can be covered by staff or only briefly
mentioned to stay focused on the major issues. Two cables will
follow which will expand on these topics.

GALLAGHER
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