From NOS
Date: 2006-05-24
65298
2006-05-24
06THEHAGUE1184
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001184
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2016
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, EU, NL
SUBJECT: DUTCH SOCIALIST PARTY (SP): NOT YOUR FATHER'S
MAOISTS
Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROLAND ARNALL FOR REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D)
1. (C) SUMMARY: Under the charismatic leadership of Jan
Marijnissen, the Dutch Socialist Party (SP) is reconfiguring
itself to become a credible left-wing alternative to the
increasingly centrist Labor Party (PvdA) of Wouter Bos. In a
rare meeting with Ambassador Arnall on May 16, Marijnissen
and MP Harry van Bommel stressed that the party has evolved
to become more moderate and less anti-American -- although it
remains strongly opposed to many U.S. policies. Party
leaders believe SP could win between 15 and 20 seats in the
next Parliament -- up from 8 -- making it a serious political
force and a potential partner with PvdA in a left-leaning
coalition government -- although PvdA leaders are openly
dismissive of forming a government with former Communists.
END SUMMARY.
DUTCH SOCIALISTS: REVIVED...
-----------------------------
2. (SBU) The Dutch Socialist Party (SP), has long been
perceived as a more radical, leftist alternative to the
increasingly mainstream Labor Party (PvdA). Formed in 1972
as a grass-roots protest party with an openly Maoist
ideology, the SP first competed in parliamentary elections in
1977, but won its first two seats only in 1994. The party's
roots as a provocative protest party is symbolized by its
logo -- a ripe tomato suitable for throwing. Under the
leadership, since 1986, of charismatic former welder and
factory worker Jan Marijnissen, the party has steadily
increased its credibility and appeal -- in 2003, it won nine
seats in the Second Chamber and four in the First Chamber.
The SP is now the fourth largest party in Parliament, and the
third largest in the country in terms of membership (just
under 40,000).
3. (C) During the 2004 Dutch referendum on the EU's
Constitutional Treaty, the SP drew on its extensive
grass-roots networks -- especially in urban areas -- and
party discipline to mount an exceptionally effective no
campaign. Support for SP grew dramatically as a result,
especially among PvdA voters disappointed by their party
leadership's support for the Constitution. Although SP
support has declined from those peak levels, the party more
than doubled its representation in city councils following
the March 2006 municipal elections. SP has subsequently
formed local coalition governments with the PvdA and other
parties in several municipalities, including Nijmegan and
Groningen. According to recent polls, the SP could win 14
seats in parliament if elections were held today, but SP
Foreign Policy Spokesman Harry van Bommel privately predicts
it will win between 15 and 20 seats when elections are held
in 2007. Even taking into account the fact that the SP tends
to do better in opinion polls than in actual elections, the
SP is likely to emerge from the next election as a
significant force in Parliament.
...REFORMED...
--------------
4. (C) On May 16, Ambassador Arnall and POLCOUNS met with
Marijnissen and van Bommel at the Second Chamber of
Parliament. Marijnissen and van Bommel both stressed that
their party has become more moderate, and less
anti-American, in recent years. Marijnissen, for example,
proudly noted that this was the first meeting he had ever had
with an American Ambassador. Van Bommel similarly pointed
out that when he speaks to party members these days, he
stresses that the SP is now more of a Social Democrat party
than a Socialist one. Based on his multiple trips to the
U.S. -- where he worked briefly as a teacher and traveled
extensively by motorcycle -- van Bommel said he appreciated
shared U.S.-Dutch values and could not imagine a Dutch
government abandoning the transatlantic relationship.
5. (C) Van Bommel and Marijnissen made clear that they
strongly disagreed with many policies of the Bush and
Balkenende governments. The SP, for example, firmly opposed
Dutch military deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. Asked
about Dutch participation in the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF),
van Bommel said he thought the initial Dutch decision to
become involved was a mistake at the time -- and it still
is. That said, SP's interest in foreign policy would always
take a back seat to bread-and-butter domestic issues such as
workers' rights and compensations.
6. (C) Although the SP draws much of its support from urban
areas with large immigrant populations, van Bommel
THE HAGUE 00001184 002 OF 002
acknowledged that the party has a problem attracting
immigrant voters. This is partly due to the party's
tradition of defending indigenous workers' rights against
immigration, but van Bommel suggested that other factors also
played a role. He noted that the sole SP member of
parliament with an Islamic background, Ali Lazrak, had
defected from the parliament because he objected to the SP's
policy of having MP's turn over a significant portion of
their salary directly to party coffers. Van Bommel stressed
that the party was actively looking at ways to change its
image to make it more attractive to culturally conservative
immigrant groups, particularly with regard to religion, and
was seeking to recruit more ethnically diverse candidates.
...AND READY TO RULE?
---------------------
7. (C) Van Bommel and Marijnissen accented their willingness
to serve in a left-wing coalition government with PvdA and
GreenLeft -- a possibility they have also raised publicly.
If current trends continue, van Bommel pointed out, there
could be a clear left-wing majority (more than 75 seats) in
the Second Chamber of Parliament following the May 2007
elections for the first time since 1977. Even if PvdA leader
Wouter Bos would prefer to rule from the center, according to
van Bommel, it would be irresponsible for him not to at least
consider governing from the left if that is what the voters
want. He pointed out that the PvdA and SP formed governing
coalitions in a number of municipalities -- including
Groningen and Nijmegan -- following the March 2006 municipal
elections, and could be seen as natural partners on many
issues. Marijnissen joked that Bos had even copied his
trademark look -- suit with no tie -- from Marijnissen, who
has not worn a tie in decades.
8. (C) In a separate meeting with the Ambassador on May 17,
PvdA member (and close Bos advisor) Frans Timmermans rejected
outright any possibility of forming a coalition government
with SP. Timmermans stressed that Bos recognizes that even
to hint at such a possibility would alienate large numbers of
centrist voters both within and to outside the PvdA. In his
view, it would be foolish for the PvdA to trust anyone who
used to be a communist.
COMMENT:
--------
9. (C) Having rejected Maoism in the 1970's, abandoned
Marxism-Leninism in 1991, and -- just last year -- dropped
all references to public ownership of property from the party
platform, the SP arguably no longer poses an ideological
threat to the status quo. That said, it remains anathema to
most voters because of its Communist links and history of
aggressive anti-establishment protest activities. As
frustration with the Dutch political establishment grows,
however, voters on both the left and the right are looking
for alternatives to the established parties, and the SP is
well positioned to fill part of that niche. Dr. Gees
Voerman, a specialist in Dutch political parties at the
University of Groningen who is currently writing a book on
the SP, told POLCOUNS recently that the SP may be the fastest
growing party in The Netherlands. If, as expected, the PvdA
refuses to enter into a coalition with SP following the 2007
elections, Voerman noted that the party would be well
positioned to challenge Bos from the left in Parliament,
potentially laying the groundwork for a more serious
challenge to the PvdA's dominance of the left in the future.
ARNALL