C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TALLINN 000297
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NB VICTORIA MIDDLETON, KEITH ANDERTON AND JAMES LOVELL
E.O. 12958:
DECL: 05/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, RS, EN
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON BRONZE SOLDIER AND ESTONIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS
REF: A. TALLINN 290 B. MOSCOW 1998
Classified By: DCM Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 1.

(C) Summary. Following days of demonstrations outside the
Estonian Embassy in Moscow and an attack on their Ambassador,
the GOE pushed hard for EU engagement with Moscow. The
resulting Troika demarche in Moscow and statement by the
Presidency was well-received by the GOE. A Russian State
Railways announcement that it will suspend oil shipments for
"previously unpublicized scheduled maintenance" has generated
only muted response from Estonia. Meanwhile, the Bronze
Soldier has been placed in the military cemetery in Tallinn
and is being attended by a steady stream of thus far peaceful
visitors. End Summary.

The GOE Calls for EU Engagement with Russia

2. (C)
Following several days of demonstrations in front of their
Embassy in Moscow and a May 2 attack on Estonia's Ambassador
to Russia (reftels), the GOE condemned the GOR's violation of
the Vienna Convention and stepped up its calls for EU
engagement with Russia. In an address to the parliament on
May 2, PM Ansip said that Estonia has asked the EU for
"immediate action" because an attack on one member state
"means an attack against the entire EU." In an official
statement, President Ilves highlighted the need for unity
among all Estonians and "civility" from Russia. Privately,
during a (previously scheduled) lunch with EU Ambassadors in
Tallinn, Ilves said he doesn't want any more "even-handed"
statements, that it is time for the "EU to take a side." In a
statement released May 1, FM Paet outlined accusations of
Russian Embassy representatives meeting with riot organizers,
blamed the Russian Federation for cyber attacks against GOE
websites, and accused Russian news organizations of
broadcasting false stories including Estonian police killing
detainees and Estonian Defense Forces Members ordering its
members to shoot Russians. Paet emphasized that the GOE
believes it is "essential that the European Union react in
full strength against the behavior of Russia," and suggested
that this could mean suspension of EU-Russia negotiations and
postponement of the EU-Russia Summit.

3. (C)
Kyllike Sillaste-Elling, the Prime Minister's Foreign Policy
Advisor, emphasized to us how important the GOE felt it was
for the EU to recognize the seriousness of the situation for
Estonia. In addition to the myriad of public statements on May
2, the GOE continued to direct diplomatic outreach to the EU
-- with calls by PM Ansip to President Merkel, FM Paet to the
German FM, and statements in COREPER. Sillaste-Elling said the
GOE is satisfied with the EU's response to Estonia's
"coordinated approach," noting the Troika's demarche in Moscow
and the EU Presidency Statement issued on May 2. She also
stressed that the issue is much bigger than the Bronze Soldier
or the security of Estonia's Embassy in Moscow. Estonia has
been under an "incredible amount of pressure from Russia,"
Sillaste-Elling said, and Russia has a direct desire to
influence internal Estonian politics. She said that unless the
countries and organizations that Russia cares about say
something, Russia will not stop.

Duma Delegation and Curiously Timed Railway Maintenance

4. (SBU)
On May 2, the MFA briefed members of the diplomatic community
on the April 30-May 1 visit of a Russian Duma delegation. MFA
Director General for Non-EU Europe, Simmu Tiik, said the GOE
invited the delegation after PM Ansip's phone conversation
with German Chancellor Merkel on April 27, despite GOE
reservations about the delegation's motivations. These
suspicions were confirmed, according to Tiik, when the head of
the Russian delegation, Nikolay Kovalev, told the press before
leaving Moscow that his main purpose was to demand the
resignation of the Estonian Government. In Tallinn, the
Russian parliamentarians continued to make this demand at
every meeting and then refused to attend a scheduled
press/diplomatic corps briefing at the MFA. The GOE responded
by downgrading ministerial-level meetings to Ministry
Chancellors (DepSec equivalents). Tiik emphasized that the GOE
had hoped to use the visit to convey its views of the
situation, but made clear that there was little

TALLINN 00000297 002 OF 003

progress in this direction. For example, when the Russian
delegation asked for access to the site where the Bronze
Soldier exhumations are currently taking place, the Estonians
explained that the Russian Embassy had turned down the GOE's
earlier request that it send a consular representative to the
site. Tiik noted that the GOE did not think it appropriate for
politicians -- Estonian or Russian -- to visit the site while
exhumations are ongoing. The Russian delegation reportedly
said they understood, but then went on to tell the Russian
press that the GOE's refusal to provide access to the site was
"horrible, a sacrilege."

Economic Threats. . .but GOE Remains Optimistic

5. (C)
According to press reports, the Russian state railway monopoly
announced planned maintenance of the route that carries
Russian refined oil product exports to Estonia starting May 1.
However, Andro Moldre, Deputy Director of the Energy
Department at the Ministry of Economic Affairs and
Communications, told us that so far he is not aware of any
disruption in oil transit shipments form Russia. He added that
Estonia has accumulated approximately one-half of a 90-day
strategic petroleum reserve, per EU mandates, but as yet the
GOE has no plans to use this. On the domestic consumption
side, Moldre said Estonians will not be hurt at the pump in
the event of a stoppage of oil transit, because retailers get
most of the petrol from the Mazieku refinery in Lithuania,
Neste Oil in Finland, and other (non-Russian) suppliers. Urmas
Glaase, Press Spokesman for the Estonian State Railways (EVR),
also confirmed to us that as of noon on May 3, there have been
no disruptions reported to oil transport shipments through
Estonia from Russia, and "EVR's business is operating as
usual." Glaase noted that he had just spoken with his
counterpart at Russian Railways, who did not indicate any
plans to disrupt service.

Most Politicians Rally Behind the Government

6. (SBU) With the exception of the Center Party, all other
political parties -- even those that had previously not
supported plans to relocate the Bronze Soldier -- are now
rallying behind the government. In a meeting with Poloff,
Randel Lants of the Social Democrats and Mark Strandberg of
the opposition Green Party stated that both parties are in
favor of a tough and united response to Russia's actions and
propaganda campaign. According to both Lants and Strandberg
the Duma delegation's visit has only inflamed domestic
political opinion. Alexander Lohtman, another Green Party MP,
observed that the delegation visit harkens back to the Soviet
delegation in the late 1930's that demanded the resignation of
the Estonian government and promptly annexed the country.

7. (SBU)
Center Party leader and Tallinn Mayor Edgar Savisaar has been
vocally criticizing GOE actions, while rejecting accusations
that his own statements undermine the stability of the state.
In a public statement, Savisaar said "we live in an Estonia
different from what it was few days ago," and that "we have to
get out of the war started by Ansip." An editorial in
Postimees, Estonia's paper of record, criticized Savisaar for
using the crisis to try to bolster his popularity. There has
been a strong popular backlash against Savisaar. A group
calling itself the "Estonian National Movement" has collected
over 82,000 signatures requesting that Savisaar step down.
(Note: There is currently no legal mechanism for a petition of
this sort to have anyQct. End Note.)

The Bronze Soldier: Still in One Piece

8. (SBU)
On May 1, the GOE place the Bronze Soldier in its new location
in a TalQmilitary cemetery and began allowing public access to
the statue. Members of the mission visited the site and found
the statue to be in good condition, in a respectful and
dignified location, and surrounded by flowers and peaceful
visitors. (Note: Russian press reported and the Duma deputies
claimed, all incorrectly, that the statue had been cut into
pieces. End Note.) Local police have a marked car and two
uniformed officers stationed outside the cemetery. While the
storefront windows of many Tallinn businesses remain broken
and boarded up and police presence remains high, the
incidences of property destruction and disorderly conduct

TALLINN 00000297 003 OF 003

have declined significantly. Police continue work to
individually identify those who took place in the riots and
prepare for a possible re-escalation of violence as May 9
approaches.

9. (SBU)
The GOE recently announced two upcoming events related to the
relocation of the statue. On May 8, as part of a commemoration
of the victims of WWII, the GOE will invite the diplomatic
corps to lay flowers at three sites: the Klooga Holocaust
memorial, the Bronze Soldier, and the Marjamaa monument to
Russian, German, and Estonian soldiers. The Ministers of
Defense and Population will represent the GOE at these
ceremonies. In June, an official ceremony will be planned to
rebury the exhumed bodies and to unveil the Bronze Soldier at
its new location. The Estonians indicate that they plan to
invite not only local diplomats to the event, but also
representatives from allied countries.

PHILLIPS