C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000276
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/NB - VICTORIA MIDDLETON, KEITH ANDERTON, AND JAMES LOVELL
E.O. 12958:
DECL: 04/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, RS, EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA'S BRONZE SOLDIER: EXCAVATION BEGINS
REF: A) GOLDSTEIN-MIDDLETON EMAIL 26APR07 B) TALLINN 106
Classified By: CDA Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

1. (C)
Summary. After nearly a year of controversy, and weeks of
speculation that the Estonian government would finally remove
the city's WWII-era Soldier and any war graves found nearby,
the process has begun. The GOE has extensively briefed the
press, the ethnic Russian community the diplomatic corps, and
the Tallinn City Council, but still faces the prospect of
legal challenges from the city, and demonstrations by
activists coming from both outside and inside the country. The
government is sensitive to the possible escalation of tensions
with Russia over this move, but determined to press forward
with excavation of the site. End Summary.

2. (SBU)
Between 4:30 and 6:00 on the morning of April 26, the
Government of Estonia (GOE) erected a security fence around
the Bronze Soldier and the park in which it is located. This
is the GOE's first step in its plan to remove and relocate the
Bronze Soldier and any war graves that may be buried near it
to a military cemetery nearby. The erection of the security
fence took place without any major incidents, but Estonian
Security Police (KAPO) interlocutors informed us that due to
public rallies already forming around the statue, they are
planning to lengthen the security fence perimeter. Several TV
crews and representatives from Russian-minority interest
groups were present from the moment the police erected the
fence.

3. (SBU)
Ministry of Defense (MOD) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs(MFA)
interlocutors have informed us that excavations of the war
graves will begin next week, and will probably last at least
until the middle of May. As a result of the excavation, Prime
Minister Andrus Ansip announced that it will not be possible
for people to leave flowers at the monument on May 9, Victory
Day. MFA Director General Simmo Tiik told foreign Ambassador's
resident in Tallinn that those who wished to do so could leave
flowers at the military cemetery, and pointed out that many
had done so in the past, including representatives of the
Russian embassy. Tiik emphasized that Estonia has discussed
this issue with the Russian government for a year now, but
that the Russians had refused to cooperate. He stressed,
however, that the Estonians have offered the Russian embassy
an opportunity to observe the excavation work and that
Estonian forensic experts will ask Russia for any help they
may need to identify the remains buried at the site.

4. (C)
For weeks leading up to today's events, Russia has been waging
an active propaganda campaign against the removal of the
Bronze Soldier. On April 25, Estonia's paper of record,
Postimees, released a story naming two Russian diplomats whom
KAPO accused of fomenting and organizing groups of young
Russian-speakers to protest. Andreas Kaju, Advisor to Defense
Minister Jaak Aaviksoo, told us off-the-record that Foreign
Minister Urmas Paet "gave KAPO the green light to embarrass
the Russians." Kaju dismissed the two Russian diplomats as
being "reckless and foolish." The Estonians have assured us
they have no plans whatsoever to PNG the Russians. According
to Kaju, what concerns the GOE more deeply was the recent
admission by Minister of Internal Affairs, Juri Pihl, in an
internal cabinet meeting that Estonian intelligence estimates
that up to as many as 400 Russian nationals may have entered
Estonia in the last couple of weeks to agitate the situation.
Kaju said that KAPO was working hard to find the agitators
they know to be in the country and deport them as quickly as
they can.

5. (C)
MOD interlocutors have said that the next 24 to 48 hours will
be critical for the GOE to show that it is in control of the
situation. Extra police from all over the country have been
brought in, and have already been stationed around the park.
Yesterday, Prime Minsiter Ansip gave a long interview on local
Russian-language radio to explain the government's position,
and today Defense Minister Aaviksoo will meet with a
roundtable representing 30 different social organizations
interested in the issue, including major Russian groups. The
Constitution Party, the largest Russian party in Estonia, has
stated it will avoid any extra-legal activities, but the more
radical "Night Watch" has said that, while it opposes
violence, any

TALLINN 00000276 002 OF 002

violence that now occurs willbe the government's fault. The
MOD's Kaju told us he was concerned by a KAPO report that
Russian-speaking groups were planning to bus in
Russian-speaking school children from northeastern Estonia to
Tallinn to join the protests. If true, Kaju was concerned that
Moscow would use images of Estonian police facing off against
school children for its "anti-Estonia PR purposes."

6. (C)
Our GOE interlocutors have regularly stressed with us that the
Bronze Soldier'sremoval is purely an internal matter being
done in accordance with Estonian and international law. Our
MOD, MFA, and KAPO interlocutors all assured us that unless
the Supreme Court rules against the GOE in a pending legal
challenge to the Law on War Graves the statue will be moved.
7. (C) Comment: Even though PM Ansip and FM Paet's Reform
party has been the principal driver behind the removal of the
Bronze Soldier, GOE interlocutors have shared with us that
Moscow's provocative behavior has started to create a sense of
solidarity in the Cabinet. Moreover, with the erection of the
security fence, GOE interlocutors have told us that any
back-down would be disastrous for the GOE, leaving no party
unscathed. End Comment.

GOLDSTEIN