C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000247
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958:
DECL: 04/17/2017
TAGS: EN, MARR, MOPS, PGOV, PREL
SUBJECT: ESTONIA'S NEW GOVERNMENT (PART III): FOREIGN AND DEFENSE POLICY PRIORITIES
Classified By: CDA Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).

1. (C)
Summary. The new Estonian government's foreign and security
policy priorities include strong relations with the U.S. and
NATO, Afghanistan, better Estonia-Russia relations, and
promoting democracy and stability in the region. The new
government supports continued engagement in Iraq, but this is
somewhat more controversial and a lower priority than
Afghanistan. When it comes time to making a decision on
whether or not to extend the mandate of Estonia's troops in
Iraq late this year, a key factor will be what we are saying
at the time about the future of our own deployments there.
Although the new government pledges to continue to be
pragmatic in its relations with Russia, sensitive issues such
as the fate of the Soviet-era World War II Bronze Soldier
monument will make progress in the relationship difficult. On
the security side of the house, the government is committed to
funding efforts to further modernize Estonia's military and to
continue active involvement in missions abroad. Lack of
bodies, however, may make it difficult in the medium term for
Estonia to staff all of the ambitious deployments to which it
has or would like to commit. End Summary.

Strong Relations with the U.S. And NATO
---------------------------------------

2. (U)
The new government's coalition agreement prioritizes
maintaining "good relations with the United States" and
emphasizes the need for Estonia to take an active role in
strengthening the partnership between the European Union (EU)
and the United States. The new government supports the idea of
signing the Transatlantic Partnership. Our contacts in the
Reform Party tell us that the GOE will continue to work with
like-minded countries within the EU to encourage cooperation
with the United States in strategic areas such as energy
security and EU-Russia relations.

3. (U)
The government has also pledged its commitment to NATO and
meeting its NATO obligations to transform its armed forces.
The coalition agreement outlines the government's
transformation goals as "modernity, mobility, rapid reaction
capacity, and the development of specialized capacities." The
agreement specifically commits the government to spend 2% of
GDP on defense by 2010. (Note: Estonia currently spends 1.84%
of GDP on defense. End Note.) Due to a fast-growing economy
(11.4% real GDP growth in 2006), the government is confident
that it will meet this target. The increased funding will go
toward continued military modernization for greater
efficiency, and interoperability within NATO. The government
has also pledged to add up to a third of a battalion in
further troop contributions to NATO's Rapid Reaction Force and
the EU's Nordic Battle Group in order to make "Estonia more
known in the world".

4. (C)
Although its transformation targets are ambitious, the new
government will not do away with mandatory conscription.
Coalition partners Reform and IRL are in sharp disagreement
over this issue. The previous Defense Minister, Jurgen Ligi
(Reform), publicly battled for a professional, all volunteer
army. However, his IRL successor, Jaak Aaviksoo, is a defender
of the current system of conscription. In an April 4 interview
to Postimees, Estonia's paper of record, Aaviksoo said
conscription has an important civic and military educational
function for young people. With only 233-265 deployable
troops, the Estonian Defense Force (EDF) is already struggling
to meet its current commitments. With the government unwilling
to abolish mandatory conscription, its ambitions for
"increasing Estonia's involvement in the world" may be
constrained by its limited resources.

Prioritizing Afghanistan over Iraq
----------------------------------

5. (SBU)
In keeping with the government's prioritization of NATO
missions, the coalition agreement specifically highlights
Afghanistan as one of its highest foreign policy priorities.
According to Andreas Kaju, Advisor to Defense Minister Jaak
Aaviksoo, there is broad and deep support in the government
over Afghanistan. Even our interlocutors from the opposition -
Center Party, People's Union, and the Greens - have expressed
their support for Estonia's role in

TALLINN 00000247 002 OF 002

Afghanistan.

6. (C)
In contrast to Afghanistan, the coalition agreement only
obliquely refers to Estonia's Iraq mission within the context
of Estonia's contribution to international development
cooperation and development aid. While it was not an issue
during the elections, Estonia's involvement in Iraq remains
widely unpopular with the public. Government interlocutors
have assured us that the government will seek another
extension this fall if there is another UN Mandate.

7. (C)
Our interlocutors all agreed that the government is in no
hurry over the Iraq mission. Both the government and
opposition are watching the political debate in the United
States, postponing any decision on Iraq until it becomes
clearer if the United States will begin withdrawing its own
forces. Since the new government has pledged to increase
Estonia's contribution to international development
cooperation and development assistance, Reform interlocutors
have indicated to us that the government would continue
assistance for Iraqi reconstruction independent of its
military contribution.

Estonia-Russia Relations
------------------------

8. (SBU)
The coalition agreement calls for "concrete and practical
initiatives for developing relationships between Estonia and
Russia." The government is keen to have its foreign policy
"move beyond Russia", as some MFA interlocutors have put it.
As a result, the GOE will continue to focus on concrete,
cross-border cooperation in the areas of transport
infrastructure, law enforcement, health, education, and
culture. The agreement makes no mention of trying to
resuscitate and finalize the border treaty between Estonia and
Russia.

9. (C)
Still, the new government's desire for a more tranquil and
cooperative relationship with Moscow may be set back by its
plans to remove a World War II era statue, the "Bronze
Soldier," and by plans to increase people's awareness of
crimes committed under both Communism and Nazism. Removal of
the Bronze Soldier is especially likely to elicit a volatile
response from Moscow. Reform continues to be the driving force
behind removing the Bronze Soldier. Reform interlocutors
likened their actions regarding the statue in particular, and
re-addressing the crimes committed under Communism in general,
to "lancing a boil" - painful but necessary for the long-term
health of the country. One prominent Reform leader told us off
the record, "If it wasn't (the statue) Moscow would find
something else to criticize us for...that's how the Russians
are."

Promoting Democracy and Stability in the Region
-----------------------------------------------

10. (SBU)
Promoting democracy and stability in the region is the
government's fourth key foreign policy priority. The coalition
agreement highlights Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova as priority
countries for development assistance. The government will
continue to support technical assistance projects and to
strengthen these fledgling democracies by bringing their civil
servants, law enforcement officials, border guards, and
military personnel to Estonia for training and instruction. In
discussions with Ukrainian diplomats, it is clear they value
Estonian assistance highly because of Estonia's success in
transforming its political and economic institutions on the
road to NATO and EU membership. The government will continue
actively to support the EU and NATO membership aspirations of
Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova within EU fora. The GOE believes
that long-term regional security and stability ultimately
depend on these countries moving closer to Brussels and
farther away from Moscow.

GOLDSTEIN