C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002086
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958:
DECL: 05/07/2017
TAGS: PREL, ETRD, ENRG, EN, RS
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: DEMONSTRATORS SHIFT FOCUS TO EC AS OIL CONTINUES TO FLOW
REF: A. TALLINN 297 B. MOSCOW 01998 C. MOSCOW 02017 D. MOSCOW 02056
Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons: 1.4 (b/d).

1. (C)
Summary: The Estonian Embassy was quiet over the weekend, and
Embassy officials expect their Ambassador to return to Moscow
in two weeks. At the 90-minute May 4 demonstration at the
European Commission offices, militia outnumbered protesters.
Russian Railways has capped shipments of oil products for some
Russian shippers but the volumes look to be enough to satisfy
Estonian domestic demands and work arounds are available.
Press reports indicate that May's Russian coal shipments to
Estonia are in jeopardy, but Russian Railways denies that coal
shipments have stopped. Almost all of these Russian imports
are destined for re-export from Estonia. The Kremlin is
working on a new initiative to spend USD $1 million annually
for protection of Russian military burial sites in Central and
Eastern Europe. End Summary.

"NICE" TO BE CALLED A FASCIST
-----------------------------

2. (C)
The Estonian Embassy was quiet over the weekend. Estonian
Press Attache Franek Persidski told us May 7 that the consular
section was open for business and no demonstrators had visited
the Embassy since early Friday morning. Estonian Ambassador
Marina Kaljurand, who left for Tallinn for "vacation" May 3,
as part of a quiet face-saving deal to end the protests, was
expected to return to Moscow in two weeks, Persidski said. He
added that Russian authorities had informed the Embassy that
Vladimir Zhirinovskiy's Liberal Democratic Party planned to
picket the Embassy on May 9 -- Russia's World War II Victory
Day holiday. The demonstration is expected to last two hours
and Estonian Embassy officials are not expecting it to be as
large or as confrontational as last week's protests. "I'm sure
they will call us fascists," Persidski said. "For us here in
Moscow, it is a good day when all they do is call you a
fascist."

MORE COPS THAN DEMONSTRATORS
----------------------------

3. (C)
Pro-Kremlin youth groups shifted their focus May 4 from the
Estonian Embassy to the offices of the European Commission in
Moscow, protesting the apparent detention of ethnic-Russian
high school student Mark Siryk by Estonian officials following
last week's riots in Tallinn. The demonstration, organized by
the youth group Nashi (Ours), was not as aggressive as last
week's demonstration outside the Estonian Embassy, EC press
spokesman Sean Carroll told us. The demonstration, which
included a smattering of demonstrators from other pro-Kremlin
youth groups and high school-aged children, totaled about 400
participants. Carroll estimated that there were about 500
militia on hand, noting that authorities kept the
demonstrators at a distance. Organizers erected a sound stage
and blared insults about "Fascist Estonia," but the
demonstration lasted only about 90 minutes.

KREMLIN INITIATIVE
------------------

4. (C)
In a move last week, apparently linked to the Bronze Statue
controversy, the Ministry of Defense's Military Memorial
Center of the Russian Armed Forces announced that the Kremlin
had drafted a decree specifying that USD $1 million should be
spent annually for protection of Russian military burial sites
in Central and Eastern Europe. General-Major Aleksandr
Kirilin, chief of the Memorial Center, said much of the money
would be allocated to protect burial sites in Germany, but
some would be spent for sites in what he called "problem
countries," such as Poland, Hungary and the Baltic States,
according to Kommersant. Kirilin did not specify how exactly
the sites would receive additional protection.

OIL PRODUCTS REDUCED BUT FLOWING
--------------------------------

5. (C)
According to a contact at TNK-BP, Russian Railways (RZD) has
capped -- but not halted -- oil product exports to Estonia for
most Russian shippers. RZD's press secretary Elena Fedorovna
told us May 7 that her company introduced a new schedule for a
"yearly renovation program" that will run from May to
September. She said that during this time some deliveries may
need to use alternate routes but that there would be no
shut-down of service. TNK-BP's export cap is set

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at about 42,000 tons/month. Surgutneftegaz is the only major
shipper without a cap, sending 80,000 tons/month from its
Kirishi refinery. These figures suggest that Estonia is
receiving enough to meet domestic needs with some left over
for re-export. Further, Russian shippers continue to re-route
volumes that would otherwise transit Estonia, continuing to
meet their downstream European commitments. However, TNK-BP
said that they are losing money as a result of RZD's action.
TNK-BP expects that the situation will "return to normal in
one week."

COAL CUT-OFF
------------

6. (C)
According to press reports, Russian coal exports to Estonia
have ground to a halt as a result of RZD's requirement that
exporters use their own -- rather than RZD's -- rail wagons.
One exporter said that May's scheduled exports of 900,000 tons
are at risk. Estonia uses little, if any, Russian imported
coal domestically. However, RZD's Fedorovna said that her
company did not tell coal shippers to use their own wagons and
that coal continues to be shipped to Estonia. An analyst at a
Moscow investment house said that coal exports are extremely
sensitive to pricing, so, if shipments have stopped,
re-routing coal exports may not be an option. Instead, he said
that the coal may not be exported but could be used to, for
example, accelerate the re-stocking of coal reserves at
Russian coal-fired power plants.

COMMENT
-------

7. (C)
The May 9 Victory Day celebration may keep temperatures
elevated, but the GOR appears to have signaled an end to the
anti-Estonian Embassy campaign. The effect on bilateral
relations, however, will continue to play out and we will
track closely whether this issue will play into future
GOR-GOE-EU energy relations.

BURNS