C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002065
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958:
DECL: 05/04/2017
TAGS: PREL, ETRD, ENRG, EN, RS
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: DEMONSTRATORS QUIT ESTONIAN EMBASSY
AS AMBASSADOR RETURNS TO TALLINN
REF: A. MOSCOW 01998 B. MOSCOW 02017 C. TALLINN 00297
Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons: 1.4 (b/d).

1. (C)
Summary: Pro-Kremlin youth groups gave up their disruptive
protest outside the Estonian Embassy early May 4 as the
Estonian Ambassador to Russia returned to Tallinn. However,
pro-Kremlin youth group Nashi (Ours) began a new demonstration
against the European Commission on the afternoon of May 4.
Additionally, about 20 WWII veterans held a quiet, 30-minute
demonstration May 4 outside the Estonian Embassy. Embassy
personnel were preparing to return to normal work. Oil
products shipments continue to flow to Estonia, despite a
Russian Railways (RZD) statement May 2 that railroad repairs
would stop shipments. On the evening of May 3, the Ambassador
stressed to First DFM Denisov the importance of winding down
this episode. He also stressed to Denisov that any
politically-motivated disruption of energy supplies to Estonia
would be extremely counter-productive and that Russia should
not be surprised by what would certainly be a sharp, public
U.S. -- and European -- reaction. Ambassador repeated these
points to DFM Kislyak on the afternoon of May 4. We are urging
our EU colleagues to stress the same message to the Russians
with the Russian-EU Summit in Samara looming ahead on May
17-18. End Summary.

All Quiet at the Embassy's Front
--------------------------------

2. (C)
Demonstrators gave up their noisy vigil outside the Estonian
Embassy early May 4 after declaring "victory" with the
departure of Estonian Ambassador Kaljurand for a brief
"vacation" in Tallinn. Kaljurand departed Moscow on the
evening of May 3, with a dozen or so demonstrators and the
leader of the pro-Kremlin youth group Nashi, Vasily Yakemenko,
trailing her to Sheremetyevo airport. At the airport,
Yakemenko declared, "It is a victory for Nashi. We will lift
the blockade as the (Embassy) is now just an ordinary empty
building in Moscow," according to press reports. The
demonstrators' departure was part of a quiet face-saving deal
worked out between the Estonians and the EU Presidency --
Germany -- and the GOR. As part of the deal, Kaljurand agreed
to leave Moscow for at least a few days and the GOR promised
to end the protest (ref B).

3. (C)
PolOff visited the Estonian Embassyon the morning of May 4.
All demonstrators had cleared out, taking their tents and
portable toilets with them. Posters and leaflets denouncing
"Fascist Estonia" littered the ground. Some militia were
disassembling metal barriers they had erected earlier. A new
Estonian flag had replaced the one torn down. The new flag was
reinforced at the top of the flag pole with duct tape.

4. (C)
Inside the Embassy, employees were beaming. "There has been a
siege atmosphere in here for a week," said Press Attache
Franek Persidski. He added that protesters had thrown rocks at
the Embassy overnight, breaking several windows. "We all hope
things will get back to normal soon." Persidski said the
Embassy's consular section would probably reopen on Monday,
May 7. Despite the end of the youth group demonstrations,
about 20 WWII veterans held a quiet, 30-minute demonstration
May 4 outside the Estonian Embassy. Also on May 4, Nashi began
a new demonstration against the European Commission. By 4
p.m., EC Press Spokesperson Aleksandra Nabokina said dozens of
Nashi demonstrators had set up a stage and loudspeakers next
to the EC office, and a large group of Nashi members and
high-schoolers had departed Red Square to march to the EC
office, apparently in protest at the EU's intervention in the
dispute, Nabokina said.

Oil Products Still Flowing for Now
----------------------------------

5. (C)
On theevening of May 3, the Ambassador stressed to First DFM
Denisov the importance of winding down this episode. He also
stressed to Denisov that any politically-motivated disruption
of energy supplies to Estonia would be extremely
counter-productive and that Russia should not be surprised by
what would certainly be a sharp, public U.S. -- and European
-- reaction. Ambassador repeated these points to DFM Kislyak
on the afternoon of May 4. We are urging our EU colleagues to
stress the same message to the Russians with the Russian-EU
Summit in Samara looming ahead on May 17-18. Ambassador
repeated these points to DFM Kislyak on the afternoon of May 4.

6. (C)
On May 2, Russian Railways announced that railroad repairs
would stop oil product shipments to Estonia. As of MOSCOW
00002065 002 OF 002 May 4, oil product shipments and coal from
Russia to Estonia for both re-export and domestic consumption
are still being delivered. As well, Russian natural gas and
crude oil flows are unaffected. The vast majority of the oil
product exports from Russia are re-exported to Western
European markets. Estonia is largely dependent on Russia for
its domestic natural gas, coal, and oil needs. However, these
energy sources make up less than 50 percent of Estonia's
energy mix -- relatively low by EU standards.

7. (C)
Most big shippers have been able to re-route oil products
originally destined for re-export through Estonia to other
ports. These companies (GazpromNeft and TNK-BP, principally)
are fulfilling their contractual obligations to customers in
Europe by managing to find another way to get their product
out of Russia. A contact at TNK-BP confirms that RZD has
capped its oil product shipments through Estonia and that
other companies are experiencing the same difficulties. He
said the only company to avoid this restriction was
Surgutneftegaz which exports products from its Kirishi
refinery. In a conflicting report, a trader with Shell told us
that they have been able to get their oil product shipments on
the May schedule.

8. (C) While oil products are still flowing, it is uncertain
whether RZD has scheduled full shipments for May. According to
one reliable contact, RZD has not put together the May
schedule. Because shipments from refinery to port can take up
to 20 days, he speculated that the product that is moving from
Russia to Estonia now may be deliveries left over from April's
approved shipments.

BURNS