C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001341
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/CARC
E.O. 12958:
DECL: 08/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, RU, GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: SOUTH OSSETIA SITREP 2: GEORGIA CLAIMS TO CONTROL MUCH OF 
SOUTH OSSETIA, FIGHTING CONTINUES
REF: TBILISI 1337
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

1. (C)
Summary: President Saakashvili in an August 8 conversation
with the Ambassador, and Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili
in a briefing to the diplomatic corps, claimed that Georgia
now controlled most of South Ossetia, including Tskhinvali,
although fighting was continuing near the northern town of
Dzhava. They also reported that Russian aircraft had dropped
bombs on several targets in Georgia, outside of the conflict
zone, at two locations in the center of Gori and dropped
ordnance on a radar installation near Gori and a police
station in Kareli. There are uncofirmed Georgian claims that
they downed a Russian aircraft; in a statement, the Russian
MFA denied this. Fighting had continued throughout the night
of August 7, resuming four hours after President Saakashvili
unilaterally declared a cease-fire at 1900. In a second
address August 8, he called on the international community to
help repel this "open Russian aggression" and announced a
general mobilization of reserves. Meanwhile, Russian
statements have accused the Georgians of targeting Russian
peacekeepers; the Georgians argue that the South Ossetians are
firing on the Russian peacekeepers as a provocation. The
Georgians have announced that a safe corridor and ceasefire
will be established from 3 to 6 pm local time for all
civilians interested in leaving Tskhinvali to do so. During
the night of August 8, four short range ballistic missiles
were fired from within Russia toward Tskhinvali.

2. (C)
We understand that at this point the Georgians control 75
percent of Tskhinvali and 11 villages around it. Journalists
report that Georgian forces are moving toward the Roki tunnel.
That road has been cratered by Georgian aircraft to make it
difficult. We are told fighting continues with Russian
fighters north of Tskhinvali; it is not clear if they are
regular army or North Caucasian irregulars. Saakashvili has
said that Georgia had no intention of getting into this fight,
but was provoked by the South Ossetians and had to respond to
protect Georgian citizens and territory. Meanwhile, the
Georgian National Security Council (NSC) has formally
requested 1,000 of its combat troops in Iraq be returned to
Georgia within 72 hours. End Summary.

3. (C)
Comment: All the evidence available to the country team
supports Saakashvili's statement that this fight was not
Georgia's original intention. Key Georgian officials who would
have had responsibility for an attack on South Ossetia have
been on leave, and the Georgians only began mobilizing August
7 once the attack was well underway. As late as 2230 last
night Georgian MOD and MFA officials were still hopeful that
the unilateral cease-fire announced by President Saakashvili
would hold. Only when the South Ossetians opened up with
artillery on Georgian villages, did the offensive to take
Tskhinvali begin. Post has eyes on the ground at the Ministry
of Interior command post in Tbilisi and will continue to
provide updates. The Embassy held an EAC and will hold another
to reasses the situation by COB. We have issued a warden
message and are looking at the situation very carefully. If
the Georgians are right, and the fighting is mainly over, the
real unknown is what the Russian role will be and whether
there is potential for the conflict to expand. End comment.

Current Situation
-----------------

4. (C)
Saakashvili, who told the Ambassador that he was in Gori when
a Russian bomb fell in the city center, confirmed that the
Georgians had not decided to move ahead until the shelling
intensified and the Russians were seen to be amassing forces
on the northern side of the Roki Tunnel. He said that the
Georgian military action had been successful, Tskhinvali was
mainly under Georgian control and that reservists would be
brought in to defend the city while armed forces were moved
further north to continue the fighting. According to
Saakashvili, the EU was sending in Carl Bildt and the
Lithuanian Foreign Minister to Tbilisi. Although most in the
Georgian government believed that the fighting had started as
a ploy of de facto leader Kokoity, Saakashvili was now
concerned that this might have been a Russian pretext and a
further attack could be expected. The Foreign Minister briefed
the diplomatic corps on the situation, noting that "all red
lines had been crossed," but expressing hope that negotiations
could take place and noting that a full amnesty would be
offered to anyone involved in the fighting. She called on the
international community to put pressure on the Russian
Government to take no action.

TBILISI 00001341 002 OF 002

5. (C)
The battle in South Ossetia took place throughout the night of
August 7. During the night, four short range ballistic
missiles were fired from within Russia toward Tskhinvali. On
August 8, Russian aircraft flew into Georgian airspace in
central Georgia and dropped ordnance on a radar installation
near Gori and a police station in Kareli. Post understands
that at this point the Georgians control 75 percent of
Tskhinvali and 11 villages around it. Journalists report that
Georgian forces are moving toward the Roki tunnel. That road
has been cratered by Georgian aircraft to make it difficult to
navigate with vehicles. We are told fighting continues with
Russian fighters north of Tskhinvali. It is not clear if they
are regular army or North Caucasian irregulars, as an MOIA
spokesman said that approximately 1500 uniformed, unidentified
forces with tanks and artillery entered South Ossetia via the
Roki tunnel on August 8 at 0200. Reports indicate many
casualties, but none are reliably accurate. State Minister of
Conflict Settlement and Reintegration Temuri Yakobashvili said
again on August 8 that Georgia will grant amnesty to all
Ossetian fighters.

Chronology of Events
--------------------

6. (C)
On August 7 at 1925 Yakobashvili returned from the conflict
zone and the Ambassador that the South Ossetians continued to
shoot at the Georgian villages despite the announcement of the
cease-fire. Yakobashvili said that he waited with General
Kulakhmetov, the Head of the Russian peacekeepers in
Tskhinvali for some time for the South Ossetians to show up.
Kulakhmetov tried to call Chochiev, and other South Ossetians
to get them together with Yakobashvili, but they did not
respond. Kulakhmetov said, he "does not control anything" and
that the South Ossetians were "shooting at the Georgians
behind my back." Yakobashvili said that the Russians
originally agreed to host a bilateral meeting with the
Ossetians and the Georgians outside the JCC. Popov came to
Georgia for this purpose and announced publicly it was his
intention to do so. Then, the Russians flipped and said the
meeting should be under the JCC. Yakobashvili said it was the
JCC system that had caused the mess and it was time for real
face to face talks.

7. (C)
OSCE observers on the ground in Tskhinvali told Poloff that
Georgia's attack on Tskhinvali began at 2335 on August 7
despite the cease-fire declared at 1900. The shelling
intensified at 2345, with the Georgians possibly using large
caliber mortars and GRAD artillery, with impacts every 15-20
seconds, and the South Ossetians returning fire. By observers'
calculations, by 0035 there were at least 100 hits on the city
of Tskhinvali, some of them damaging the OSCE field office
there. Currently, the OSCE has electricity, but part of the
building has sustained damage and the internet is down. There
was a lull in the activity between 0145 and 0415, when the
situation began to re-intensify, and by 0615 loud explosions
could be heard. The number of casualties are unknown as
emergency services are unable to move freely on the ground due
to firing. Most local residents are confined to cellars and
basements waiting for calm to return.

8. (C)
At approximately 0400 on August 8, the Georgian National
Security Council asked the U.S. for the return of 1,000 of its
troops from Iraq, 500 within the next 24 hours, and the
remainder within 48 hours. A regularly scheduled rotator
flight may return up to 250 troops to Georgia by this
afternoon. (Note: USG agreement with the GOG provides for
emergency return of 1,000 troops within 96 hours. End note.)
Later, Saakashvili announced a general mobilization of all
reserves. In a second address, he called Russia's actions
"open aggression" and called on the international community to
help repel it.

9. (C)
Conversely, the Russians have said they believe Georgian
forces are targeting Russian peacekeepers. They have told the
Georgians that in view of these attacks Georgia bears
responsibility for anything that might follow. The Georgians
have replied that they are avoiding any conflict with the
peacekeepers as well as civilians. The Georgians believe the
South Ossetians are targeting the Russians to provoke a bigger
Georgian-Russian conflict.

10. (C)
The South Ossetians are reportedly now accusing the Russians
of betraying them. One plausible explanation for all this is
that de facto leader Kokoity decided to roll the dice and
stimulate a conflict with the Georgians in hopes of bringing
in the Russians and thereby saving himself or enhancing his
position. Reports that Kokoity has left Tskhinvali remain
unconfirmed.

TEFFT