Wikileaks - 08COPENHAGEN617

VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB 
DE RUEHCP #0617/01 3300859
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 250859Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4594
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000617 
SIPDIS 
FOR THE SECRETARY FROM AMBASSADOR JIM CAIN 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2018 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MARR, ECON, OVIP, DA 
SUBJECT: YOUR VISIT TO COPENHAGEN 
Classified By: Ambassador James P. Cain, reasons 1.4b,d 

1. (C) Madam Secretary, you know Danish Foreign Minister Per 
Stig Moller as a good colleague, and Denmark as one of our 
closest allies in Europe. Your "farewell" visit here is much 
appreciated by the Danes, who are naturally looking ahead to 
the incoming administration but are also keen to highlight 
the strength of their partnership with you. Your exchanges 
with Per Stig and with Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen 
will reinforce Danish resolve further in our common efforts 
to confront global threats to peace, freedom, and prosperity. 
As you know, the Danes are absolutely committed to sustained, 
active engagement to meet these challenges. 

A Steady Partner in the Wider World 
----------------------------------- 

2. (C) Denmark´s commitment can be seen in its many overseas 
deployments, from its naval vessels on patrol off the Horn of 
Africa, to its peacekeeping forces in Kosovo and its 
battle-hardened troops engaging the Taliban in Afghanistan´s 
southern Helmand province. Danish intelligence and security 
services work hand in hand with ours in combating al-Qaeda at 
home and abroad. A world leader in alternative energy 
technology, Danish firms are at the forefront of developments 
in wind power and biofuels, strengthening Denmark´s "green" 
credentials as it prepares to host the UN Climate Summit 
(COP-15) in December 2009. Denmark contributes 0.8 percent of 
its GDP in development and humanitarian aid, mostly to Africa 
but also to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Palestinian 
territories. 

3. (C) Re-elected to a third term last year, the Rasmussen 
government presides over a thin majority but with a 
commanding position against a lackluster and frustrated 
opposition. Although it has begun to feel the effects of the 
global economic crisis, the Danish economy has experienced a 
healthy expansion in recent years, unemployment is recently 
higher but still near record lows (3.0 percent), and large 
budget surpluses have been on the verge of wiping out the 
Danish public debt altogether. Denmark is not without its 
problems -- among them the challenges of a multicultural 
society. Strained relations with its 200,000-strong Muslim 
immigrant population were highlighted during the 2006 cartoon 
crisis and again earlier this year when some of those 
drawings were reprinted here. 

4. (C) Even amid the global financial turmoil, the Danes are 
sure to have the progress of our mission in Afghanistan, the 
future of European security, and the transatlantic 
relationship uppermost on their minds. In the Danes you will 
find committed Atlanticists, convinced of the primacy of NATO 
(while looking to eliminate Denmark´s EU "opt-outs" on 
defense, justice and the euro as soon as possible) but 
concerned about the Alliance´s ability to meet new and 
ongoing challenges. 

5. (C) Nowhere is this concern more pressing than regarding 
the NATO mission in Afghanistan. Although the Danish 
deployment enjoys broad parliamentary backing and public 
support, the Danes remain troubled by the difficulties of 
securing greater -- and more flexible -- contributions from 
Allies and what this means for the future of NATO. The 
foreign minister and prime minister will welcome a discussion 
of efforts to encourage greater "solidarity" among members in 
Afghanistan, assuming that the topic has not been exhausted 
at the NAC ministerial earlier in the week. FM Moller 
visited Afghanistan in late November, highlighting with 
Karzai his skepticism of political engagement with Taliban 
leaders and predicting publicly that Danish forces will be 
present there for another 4-5 years. 

6. (C) Meanwhile, Denmark itself is on the front lines of the 
battle against Islamic extremism and terror in Europe, and 
the Danes are working closely with us to disrupt nascent 
terror cells and promote better integration of immigrant 
communities. Danish authorities have made a number of 
high-profile arrests in the past two years, including one 
with direct links to al-Qaeda and on which we cooperated 
closely. Denmark has a mixed record on prosecutions and we 
are now providing them with assistance in this area as well. 
Although the cartoons/freedom of expression issue remains 
something of a blind spot for the Danes, there are signs of 
an evolution in public opinion here; a poll earlier this year 
showed majorities approving of the cartoon´s original 
publication but disapproving of a more recent reprinting. 

Some Retrospection, and a Look Ahead 
------------------------------------ 

7. (C) FM Moller and PM Rasmussen are certain to invite your 
reflections on a range of critical issues as you leave 
office. In addition to Afghanistan and Pakistan, Moller in 
particular will want to hear your assessment of the Middle 
East peace process, given his long-standing interest and his 
own recent travel there (including to Syria). As you know, 
Moller remains a strong advocate of a multi-track approach. 
We can expect that the Danes will seek your perspective on 
long-term relations with Russia, as well as approaches in 
that context to Georgia, Ukraine, and missile defense. 

8. (C) Despite last year´s withdrawal, the Danes still 
consider themselves part of the Coalition in Iraq and will be 
interested in your assessment of the situation there. 
Rasmussen and Moller have been among the strongest voices for 
maintaining a tough line on Iran, on terrorism, nuclear 
proliferation and human rights grounds. With incidents of 
high-seas piracy in the Gulf of Aden alarmingly high, the 
Danes -- currently leading the CTF-150 naval mission off the 
Horn of Africa -- have grown increasingly vocal about the 
need for coordinated action to protect Danish and 
international shipping there. 

9. (C) Naturally, the foreign and prime ministers are keenly 
interested in our transition and would welcome any insights 
you could offer into the process, together with observations 
about the key players and anticipated agenda of the incoming 
administration. The Danes may highlight their hosting of the 
UN COP-15 meeting here next December, which they hope will 
approve a new global climate change treaty and solidify 
Danish credentials as a leader in renewable energy. Although 
Denmark has so far managed to weather the global economic 
crisis better than others, the Danes are deeply concerned 
about the situation and its impact on trade, and may seek 
your views on the latest developments. 

10. (C) Moller and Rasmussen may ask your views on the likely 
early closure of Guantanamo and how that process would work; 
the Danes rejected our earlier appeals to accept former 
detainees, but soon may find themselves forced to revisit the 
issue. Finally, your letter on alleged rendition flights 
through Danish airspace proved invaluable to managing this 
contentious issue last month, and Per Stig may want to 
recognize this privately. 

11. (C) In addition to expressing appreciation for all 
Denmark has done -- especially in Afghanistan, I recommend 
that you reassure the Danes that the next administration will 
be committed to working closely with European partners, 
particularly those such as Denmark dedicated to active 
engagement on global challenges. Long among the most 
pro-American allies in Europe, the Danes have sought to 
cultivate a close relationship with us in recent years, 
typified by the warm friendship between Rasmussen and 
President Bush. The Danes approach the new U.S. 
administration with a mixture of anticipation and 
trepidation, hopeful about new opportunities and a freshening 
of the relationship, but also concerned about maintaining a 
privileged position despite their relatively small size. 
Ultimately, such concerns will be addressed in time, but your 
visit offers an important opportunity to reaffirm in strong 
terms the enduring affection and strategic partnership 
between our two nations. 

12. (SBU) Madam Secretary, I look forward to welcoming you 
here next week. As a point of information, the day before 
your arrival in Copenhagen I will return from a three-day 
visit to Afghanistan with Defense Minister Gade to visit 
Danish and American troops. Yours, Jim Cain. 

CAIN