From: <a href="http://www.kp.ru/daily/25623/790207/">www.kp.ru</a><br>
Date: 2010-02-11.
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C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000305
SIPDIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000305
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2020
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, PINR, KDEM, RS
SUBJECT: POLITICAL OPPOSITION IN RUSSIA FOCUSED ON PREVENTING PUTIN RETURN
Classified By: Ambassador John Beyrle for Reasons 1.4(b,d)

1. (C) Summary: Leaders of the political opposition in Moscow
discussed Russia's political future and the role of the United
States in it with NSC Senior Director for Russia Michael
McFaul. Opposition leaders believe that increased political
freedom and serious measures to combat corruption can only be
pursued if Vladimir Putin is prevented from winning back the
Russian presidency in 2012. They also think that, with civil
society ostensibly "asleep" for the foreseeable future, only a
major national emergency has the potential to destabilize the
current regime in the short-term. End Summary.

2. (C) On January 14, National Security Council Senior
Director for Russia Michael McFaul met with Boris Nemtsov and
Vladimir Milov of the Solidarity Movement, Grigoriy Bovt of
the political party Right Cause, and Vladimir Ryzhkov, former
head of the now defunct Russia's Republican Party and
professor at Moscow's Higher School of Economics. All four
leaders view Barack Obama as a highly pragmatic president
focused on external cooperation with Russia, but supposedly
not willing to pressure the Russian government for greater
political freedom. President Medvedev is not seen as a viable
alternative to Prime Minister Putin, who they believe will
likely retake the Presidency in 2012. This, according to them,
will ensure that a corrupt and unresponsive government
continues to run Russia. They agreed that the aim of the
political opposition over the next two years should be to
prevent the return of Putin to the presidency. According to
them, however, given Putin's control over society only an
emergency situation could bring about his fall from grace.

3. (C) Bovt argued that civil society was presently sleeping,
and is unlikely to be drawn to active opposition of the
current regime through any political process. He compared
Putin's government to that of the Soviet Union, though Ryzhkov
clarified that today Russians enjoy the freedom to a personal
life and international travel as long as they refrain from
criticism of the government. The majority of Russia's
citizens, according to him, appear satisfied with the
arrangement. Nemtsov added that the regime's weakness stems
from societal problems that it refuses to address -- chief
among them corruption. The group agreed that such corruption,
which prevents the modernization of the country, leads to the
theft of billions of dollars budgeted for social services and
causes mounting deaths as infrastructure fails spectacularly
across the country. The growing potential for large-scale
emergency situations, according to them, is the only real
threat of instability to the regime.

4. (C) The Opposition figures claimed that, to further improve
relations between Russia and the U.S., the Obama
administration has ostensibly refrained from vocal support for
democratic reform. While this strategy was showing pragmatic
results in the short term, they argued, Putin's return to the
Presidency would only lead to a deterioration of relations
with the United States. (NOTE: During the July 2009 summit in
Moscow, the President met with a broad array of opposition,
including those considered "outside the system" to the great
irritation of the Russian Presidential Administration. END
NOTE) McFaul opined that "de-Putinization" must come from
within Russia, from a focus on civil education to broaden
demands within society for increased freedom. Though the
President may not be as vocal about his support for civil
society within Russia as opposition members in Russia might
prefer, McFaul made clear to this group, all of whom he has
known throughout his career, that the President fully supports
democratic reform in Russia. All agreed that dramatic change
in the Russian political landscape would not take place in the
near future. 5. National Security Council Senior Director for
Russia Michael McFaul has cleared on this cable. Beyrle
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