ID:250334
    Date:2010-02-23 21:03:00
    Origin:10PORTAUPRINCE186

VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHPU #0186 0542104
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 232103Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY PORT AU PRINCE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0390
INFO HAITI COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEHPU/AMEMBASSY PORT AU PRINCE
    
UNCLAS PORT AU PRINCE 000186 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, HA, PINR, AID, EAID, KDEM 
SUBJECT: PREVAL'S PARLIAMENTARY UPPER-HAND 

1. (SBU) Summary.  Parliament re-established itself quickly 
after the earthquake, setting up special commissions and trying to 
re-assert its role as a watchdog.  Despite calls by opposition 
parliamentarians for changes in government, President Preval still 
has the upper-hand because of the body's contested legitimacy and 
Preval's political clout ahead of eventual elections.  Preval could 
sideline Parliament after May 2010 and make limited concessions 
only as needed.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) Within a few days of the earthquake, Parliament 
re-established itself on the grounds of the Haitian National Police 
Academy and focused on its watchdog role and on debating a strategy 
for reconstruction.  Several opposition parliamentarians, however, 
quickly called for changes in PM Bellerive's cabinet, citing the 
government inefficiencies in managing relief efforts, and requested 
meetings with Bellerive and several of his key Ministers. 
Bellerive responded only once, appearing at a Senate hearing on 
February 2.  Bellerive told Embassy officials in private he did not 
expect Parliament to be cooperative with his government, and that 
the GOH could sideline Parliament to concentrate on relief efforts. 
 
3. (SBU) Parliament does not pose a threat to Preval and 
Bellerive's ability to govern.  Parliament's legitimacy can be 
contested.  The mandates of the entire Lower Chamber and one third 
of the Senate were due to expire in January, but were extended by 
the lawmakers until May, a move most observers deemed 
unconstitutional.  The move further weakened the image of an 
institution already considered inefficient by many political actors 
and observers, and makes the opposition's relative and fragile 
majority in Parliament practically irrelevant. 
 
4. (SBU) Preval still carries significant influence in both 
the Lower Chamber and the Senate.  Most parliamentarians expect 
February's elections to be rescheduled for November or early 2011, 
and the same logic that gave Preval a majority in parliament before 
the earthquake - the expectation that an alignment with Preval was 
a quasi-guarantee for reelection - still applies.  Most 
importantly, of the 19 Senators whose mandates will be valid beyond 
May 2010, 11 or 12 are Preval allies.  Senator Joseph Lambert, a 
former Senate President and leader of Preval's Inite party, told 
PolOff that Preval still held a comfortable majority in the Senate, 
despite "the defection of some into the opposition camp."  Several 
of the voices who now call for a change in government, including 
Senators Jean Hector Anacasis and Maxime Roumer, voted to oust 
Prime Minister Michele Pierre-Louis just four months ago, and 
approved Bellerive within a week.  Both Levaillant Louis-Jeune and 
Kely Bastien, respectively Presidents of the Lower Chamber and the 
Senate, as well as other parliamentarians, privately have expressed 
their support for Preval and his government. 
 
5. (SBU) In addition, Parliament (reduced to 19 Senators 
beyond May 2010) will require a quorum of 16 Senators for any vote. 
Despite Preval's slim majority in the Senate after May, the 
opposition (between five and seven Senators, depending on the mood 
of the day) should be able to block a quorum as a means of veto (a 
tool that is used often in Haitian parliamentary politics).  This 
would effectively paralyze Parliament, and would enable Preval and 
Bellerive to marginalize the legislative branch.  Opposition 
Senators Youri Latortue and Evalliere Beauplan both conceded that 
the Senate could only function based on consensus between the 
opposition and Preval's allies beyond May. 
 
6. (SBU) Comment: Parliament's quick re-establishment 
impressed many observers. However, parliament's legitimacy is 
contested and remains equally discredited in the minds of the 
population, despite a weakened executive branch.  In addition, 
Preval is still influential in Parliament and the Senate in 
particular, and could sideline the institution if it does not 
support him.  Preval has shown little interest in genuinely 
reaching out to opposition parliamentarians thus far, and Post 
doubts he will find it in his interest to reach out to a fragmented 
and largely unpopular opposition in the remainder of his term. 

MERTEN