ID:45214
    Date:2005-11-15 18:54:00
    Origin:05LIMA4854

This record is a partial extract of the original cable.
The full text of the original cable is not available.
    
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LIMA 004854 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/AND FOR JOAQUIN MONSERRATE 
WHA FOR BRUCE FRIEDMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2015 
TAGS: PINR, PREL, PGOV, PE 
SUBJECT: HUMALA FEINTS TO THE CENTER, BUT CONTINUES TO 
FLIRT WITH THE FAR LEFT 
 
REF: A. LIMA 4132 
     B. LIMA 4968 (03) 
 
Classified By: Polcouns Alexander Margulies.  Reason: 1.4(b/d). 
 
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Summary: 
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1.  (C) Peruvian ultra-nationalist and Chavez admirer Ollanta 
Humala has recently made efforts to position himself -- at 
least rhetorically -- closer to the political center.  Over 
the last month, he has publicly rejected the New Years Eve 
2004 rebellion his brother, Antauro Humala, led in 
Andahuaylas; distanced himself from Chavez-style 
confrontation with the United States; and forsworn his 
family's "Ethno-Cacerista" political identity (Ref B). 
Despite the recent moderate pose, Ollanta still speaks highly 
of Chavez, is discussing an electoral alliance with far left 
parties, opposes opening up Peru's ports to foreign 
investment, favors the "industrialization" of the coca leaf, 
and has pledged to review contracts with foreign oil 
companies if elected President.  Ollanta is skilled at 
putting a moderate-seeming face on basically radical, 
pro-cocalero positions.  A recent national poll put him in 
fourth place for President with 11 percent of the electorate. 
End Summary. 
 
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My Brother's Rebellion, Not Mine 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Ollanta has accused the press of trying "to mix my 
brother's violent discourse with my own."  He recently 
publicly rejected his brother's abortive rebellion in 
Andahuaylas last New Year's, an event that left four 
policemen dead and Antauro Humala and large numbers of his 
followers in jail.  Ollanta contrasted the Andahuaylas putsch 
with his own uprising against Fujimori in October 2000, 
stating that he acted "in defense of the Republic's 
constitutional order" with the support of the people.  On 
various occasions, Ollanta has stated that while he loves his 
brother and his family (who are supporting Antauro), in 
politics "everyone has their own road."  Ollanta says that 
there is no need to resort to violence because "Hugo Chavez' 
government demonstrates that revolutionary changes can be 
made through democracy."  Ollanta has rejected accusations 
that he plans to support a possible Congressional campaign by 
his brother so the latter, if elected, could obtain 
legislative immunity.  Recently, he told a television 
audience that he "had never said he would have corrupt 
politicians shot," an explicit threat his brother Antauro 
repeatedly made in public statements. 
 
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Taking Distance from Chavez' Anti-Americanism 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) While Humala cites Chavez as a democratic example, he 
has been careful to stake out a certain distance from the 
Venezuelan President.  He repeatedly stated in a recent 
interview that he has never met Chavez and does not know him 
personally.  (Comment: We understand that Ollanta met Chavez 
last July in Lima.  End Comment.)  Asked if a future Ollanta 
Humala government in Peru would follow Chavez' lead, Ollanta 
replied that Peru follows "distinct dynamics."  Venezuela, he 
said, was the fourth largest oil-producing country in the 
world, "but it has problems with the United States.  I don't 
think Peru has any reason to enter into this political 
collision (between Washington and Caracas)." 
 
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Breaking with the Family Ideology 
--------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) Ollanta says that he is not an Ethnocacerista, a 
follower of the radical, nativist, quasi-racist, pro-coca, 
anti-U.S., anti-Chilean ideology created by his father and 
propagated by his brother, Antauro, for the last several 
years in a newspaper named after Ollanta himself (Ref B). 
Ollanta claims that his own Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) 
is separate and distinct from the remaining Ethnocaceristas. 
Ollanta also says he now rejects positions taken in the 
Ethnocacerista newspaper "Ollanta" that he said made excuses 
for Sendero Luminoso.  He characterized those viewpoints as 
"crazy."  (Note: The newspaper "Ollanta" has not appeared on 
Peru's streets for about a year.  It disappeared from view 
several months before Antauro Humala's abortive Andahuaylas 
rebellion.  End Note.) 
 
5.  (U) Ollanta claims that his party represents "the 
nationalism of the French under occupation (during World War 
II)."  (Note: The Ethnocacerista newspaper "Ollanta" 
frequently protested that Peru was a colony of the U.S.  End 
Note.)  While Ollanta himself concedes that Peru needs 
foreign investment to develop, he opposes port privatization 
and calls for renegotiating contracts with foreign companies. 
In a recent interview, he alleged that foreign oil companies 
buy Peruvian crude oil for USD 8/barrel and sell the same oil 
back to Peru at international market prices.  He calls for 
the industrialization of coca and protectionism for 
agriculture. 
 
6.  (C) Ollanta Humala's alleged break with his brother was 
questioned by the Lima daily "La Republica," which reported 
on 6/11 that Ollanta had purchased an electoral kit from the 
official elections registry (ONPE) with the intention of 
registering the Ethno-Cacerista Party in August of this year. 
The previous April, he had purchased a similar kit for his 
Peruvian Nationalist Party. 
 
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The Hard Left Still His Best Bet 
-------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) The hard left communists have been longing to run 
behind Ollanta Humala, given the latter's strong showing in 
national polls, where he places fourth (Ref B).  While Humala 
has toned down his rhetoric, his party is discussing an 
alliance with the New Left Movement (MNI), and on 11/5 the 
MNI voted to accept a PNP proposal to form an electoral 
alliance called The Front for National Salvation (FSN).  The 
details, however, still have to be worked out, with Humala 
saying that he would accept an alliance if the leftist 
parties stress their nationalist values rather than their 
Marxist ideology.  (Note: Humala was not in Lima when the MNI 
voted.  Instead, his party's Secretary General, Francisco 
Rojas, delivered the proposal for an alliance.  End Note.) 
 
8.  (C) Members of the socialist camp are also holding the 
door open to Ollanta.  Peru Socialist Party (PSP, formerly 
the Democratic Decentralized Party-PDD) leader Javier Diaz 
Canseco told the press that his group "could talk with 
Ollanta Humala" on 11/3.  Other leftist parties have said the 
same, although former Women's Affairs Minister Susana 
Villaran has rejected allying her social democratic party 
with Ollanta. 
 
9.  (U) Ollanta submitted a request to register his party to 
the National Electoral Council (JNE) on 11/14 along with 
three boxes of signatures.  (He needs 130,000 valid 
signatures to register his PNP.)  Should Humala succeed in 
registering the PNP, this could influence his negotiations 
with the left. 
 
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Comment: 
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10.  (C) Ollanta is offering a Chavez-like slick package for 
a discontented electorate, staying deliberately vague about 
plans and proposals and adopting a moderate tone, even when 
promoting positions that are basically cocalero and statist. 
In an 11/13 appearance on Channel 5's "Electoral Pulse" 
program, Ollanta appeared in suit and tie.  During the 
program, he called for a new constitution, the revision of 
foreign contracts, state control over major resources and the 
"patenting" of the coca leaf to protect the livelihood of the 
"two hundred and fifty thousand families" who live off this 
product.  When pressed for details on his plans for reform, 
Ollanta demurred, saying that both his party and his 
candidacy were young, and would define the details over time. 
 He averred that his only "radicalism" was in wanting a state 
that would respond to citizens' needs.  Ollanta wrapped 
himself in the cause of poor farmers who, he said, were 
compelled to carry out agricultural strikes due to impossible 
economic conditions and state institutions that did nothing 
to alleviate the farmers' plight. 

11.  (C) There are indications that Ollanta's style and 
message could gain some traction.  A recent national poll by 
the Apoyo consultancy, reported in Lima daily "El Comercio" 
on 11/13, shows Ollanta's support rising from 8 to 11 percent 
from October to November.  (Ollanta stood at 5 percent in an 
April survey by Apoyo.)  Regionally, Ollanta's support is 
concentrated in the south and the southern altiplano.  The 
regional concentration indicates that even if he does not win 
nationally, Ollanta could remain a troublesome thorn in the 
side of a new government as an advocate for cocaleros and 
small farmers. 
 
12.  (C) As the smaller parties scramble to join electoral 
alliances in advance of the April 2006 general election, 
Ollanta hovers as a beacon, a wild card "outsider" candidate 
whose charisma tempts fascists and Marxists alike.  Should 
the left, socialist and communist, unite behind Ollanta -- in 
combination with cocaleros and small farmers -- he would 
become an even more formidable electoral presence.  Post will 
continue to monitor Ollanta's political courtships as they 
develop during this wedding season of pre-electoral 
alliance-making. 

STRUBLE