2 Jan 09
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000005
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2019
TAGS: KWBG, MOPS, PREL, PTER, PINR, EAID, IS 
SUBJECT: GAZA SITUATION REPORT, JANUARY 2, 15:00 
REF: A. TEL AVIV 2930 B. TEL AVIV 2922 C. TEL AVIV 2906 
Classified By: A/DCM Marc Sievers for reasons 1.4 (B/D).

1. (C) SUMMARY: Local and international media 
highlighted FM Livni,s January 1 comments in Paris that a ceasefire was 
unnecessary and would give Hamas time to regroup. Israeli troops 
deployed around Gaza have relaxed their posture, but remain prepared for
ground incursions. Rocket and mortar strikes against southern Israeli 
towns have decreased, but Grad-type rockets continue to impact Be,er 
Sheva; no additional Israeli deaths were reported on January 1 or 2. 
Israeli Air Force (IAF) operations against Hamas targets continued on 
January 1 and 2, killing Nizar Rayan, reportedly one of the IDF's top 
targets and the first senior Hamas official killed in Operation Cast 
Lead, along with 15 members of his family, according to press reports. 
The IAF also destroyed a mosque reportedly serving as a weapons depot 
and communications hub. On the morning of January 2, Embassy Tel Aviv, 
Consulate-General Jerusalem and Embassy Amman facilitated the evacuation
of 27 American citizens and their family members from Gaza. END SUMMARY.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
2. (SBU) After meeting with 
French President Sarkozy in Paris on January 1, FM Livni reiterated the 
cabinet,s December 31 decision to reject a 48-hour ceasefire, saying 
there was no humanitarian crisis in Gaza and therefore no need for a 
humanitarian ceasefire. Sarkozy restated his intention to visit the 
region next week. On January 1, France ceded the rotating EU presidency 
to the Czech Republic, which announced plans to dispatch a delegation to
Jerusalem, Ramallah, Amman, and Cairo on January 4 in support of the 
French ceasefire proposal. Turkish PM Erdogan,s diplomatic tour 
continued on January 1 with a stop in Cairo after meeting Syrian 
President Asad on December 31; he is expected to visit Riyadh on January

3. Turkish DCM Bozay provided a readout of President Gul's January 1 
conversation with President Peres. Gul reportedly expressed 
understanding of Israel's need to take action against terrorist attacks,
noting that Turkey was also a victim of terrorism, but cautioned Peres 
that the operation needed to be brought to a quick conclusion due to the
impact on Muslim public opinion. Peres responded that he hoped Israeli 
military operations could be completed soon, but said Hamas was not 
showing any sign of readiness to accept a ceasefire on terms acceptable 
to Israel. Local reaction to the December 31 statement by Arab League 
FMs has been muted. 

3. (C) Neither the inner cabinet nor full security 
cabinet have convened since the December 31 meeting in which cabinet 
members agreed upon conditions for a ceasefire and ended press 
speculation of dissent by DM Barak; the next regular cabinet meeting 
will be on January 4. While reportedly pushing for a major but brief 
ground incursion, Ha,aretz reports that defense officials recommend 
parallel preparation of a diplomatic exit strategy that would include an
agreement brokered with Hamas; FM Livni remarked in Paris that a 
ceasefire negotiated directly with Hamas was unacceptable as it would 
legitimize the group,s hold over Gaza. 

4. (U) Polling results in advance of Knesset elections
still scheduled for February 10 continue to show gains for DM Barak,s 
Labor Party, with unclear results for FM Livni,s Kadima Party and former
PM Netanyahu,s Likud Party. Media commentators agree that Barak has the
most to gain from the Gaza operation, though much depends upon its 
outcome. A Ma,ariv-Teleseeker poll published January 2 shows the Labor 
Party earning 16 Knesset seats if elections were held today (up from 11 
on December 25), while Likud and Kadima would each take 28 (down from 29
for Likud and 30 for Kadima). The same poll showed public support for 
the ongoing operations against Hamas at 93 percent, with 40 percent 
favoring continued air attacks only, 41 percent in favor of a ground 
incursion, and nine percent advocating an immediate ceasefire. 77 
percent of the public believes Israel should only accept a ceasefire if 
it includes negotiations for the release of Gilad Shalit. (Note: The 
Ma,ariv-Teleseeker poll showed significantly stronger support for 
ongoing operations in Gaza than a January 1 Ha,aretz poll that included 
Israeli Arabs, though their influence on government decision making is 
minimal, leading us to believe they were excluded from the Ma,ariv 
poll.) The Likud Party has put up billboards all over Tel Aviv with the 
slogan "strong together" and in smaller print, "Likud supports our 
soldiers and the residents of the south." In keeping with Bibi 
Netanyahu's pledge to suspend his electoral campaign during the 
fighting, the billboards do not refer to Netanyahu directly. 

MILITARY OPERATIONS

5. (S) The Israeli Defense Forces,
(IDF) ground buildup appears to have slowed after the initial influx of
armor and infantry to the Gaza perimeter. Elements of at least three 
armor and four infantry brigades remain deployed along the

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northern Gaza strip. DAO reports no indications of 
an imminent ground incursion. IDF maintenance and logistical activity 
continued on January 2, but IDF troops displayed a more relaxed posture 
than on January 1. DAO assesses that the IDF has not yet deployed 
sufficient forces for a deep, sustained ground operation, but that more 
limited incursions into northern Gaza could occur with little or no 
warning. 

6. (SBU) Despite cleared skies over Gaza, the pace of 
Israeli Air Force (IAF) operations has decreased, with 48 sorties on 
January 1, according to the IDF. Media reports speculate that the IAF is
running out of quality targets and may soon be forced to either scale 
back operations or turn the fighting over to ground forces. IAF 
operations on January 1 included a strike that killed senior Hamas 
official Nizar Rayan in his Jabaliya home, reportedly along with his 
four wives and 11 of his children. Rayan was reportedly on the IDF's 
list of top Hamas targets, and was the first senior Hamas political 
official killed in Operation Cast Lead. IAF jets also bombed a mosque in
the Jabaliya area that, according to IDF sources, served as a command 
and control hub for Hamas militants and storage site for Grad-type and 
Qassam rockets. As of 12:00 on January 2, the IAF had carried out an 
additional 20 strikes, mostly targeting the homes of Hamas militants; 
IDF sources stress that residents received prior warnings to evacuate by
leaflet, phone, or text message, although one prominent commentator 
quoted military sources as saying that at least in the Rayan attack, no 
one answered the phone when it rang 10 minutes prior to the attack. 

7. (SBU) IDF sources report that 35 rockets, including
10 Grad-type, and four mortar rounds were fired into Israel on January 
1, with several rockets striking in or around Be,er Sheva, with no 
deaths or injuries. As of 15:00 on January 2 approximately 20 additional
rockets had been launched from Gaza, impacting Ashkelon, Sdot Negev, 
and Eshkol; one woman was reported injured by shrapnel. Israeli towns 
and cities within 40km of Gaza remain under special alert, expanded from
30km after rockets began striking Be,er Sheva on December 31. Schools 
remain closed, and residents have been asked to stay in or near 
shelters. 

AMCIT EVACUATION

8. (SBU) On the morning of January 2 
Embassy Tel Aviv, Consulate-General Jerusalem, and Embassy Amman 
coordinated the evacuation of 27 American citizens (Amcits) and 
non-Amcit family members from Gaza via the Erez crossing; an additional 
seven Amcits on the initial evacuation list chose to remain in Gaza. As 
of 14:00 the 27 evacuees were proceeding through the Allenby border 
crossing from Israel into Jordan after transiting Israel under embassy 
escort. A total of 234 third country nationals were evacuated through 
Erez during the day.

HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

9. (SBU) The Office for 
Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) 
announced that 60 trucks carrying 1,360 tons of humanitarian supplies 
entered Gaza from Israel via the Kerem Shalom crossing on January 1, 
including 10 UN Relief and Works Agency trucks with cooking oil and 
seven with flour, three trucks with medical supplies from Egypt, seven 
trucks with food from Jordan, and two International Committee of the Red
Cross trucks carrying medical supplies. 64 trucks entered Gaza on 
January 2, according to COGAT (of 72 that were initially expected). 
According to USAID, the Kerem Shalom crossing remained open as of 15:00 
on January 2, while the Rafah crossing into Egypt opened only briefly 
for the evacuation of 17 wounded Palestinians and entry of six Egyptian 
trucks carrying medical supplies. The Karni grain conveyor and Nahal Oz 
fuel pipeline remained closed on January 1 and 2. 

10. (SBU) Turkish DCM Bozay told us today that Turkey 
had completed the coordination with COGAT of substantial Turkish 
humanitarian assistance, including five ambulances, 330 tons of flour, 
11,000 dried food parcels (11 tons), and 13 tons of medical supplies, 
all of which has now entered Gaza. Bozay said he received full 
cooperation from Israeli officials, including clearance of the 
ambulances through the Ashdod port within two days. Based on the success
of these shipments, the Turks reportedly are planning additional 
humanitarian relief, including a number of small generators for Gaza's 
hospital. 

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