Excerpt from document summary
Egypt's top priority in Africa is unity of Sudan. The
Government of Egypt (GoE) supports Special Envoy (S/E)
Gration's efforts to resolve the crisis in Darfur and
encourage implementation of the CPA. Egypt believes there
will be "fatal implications" if South Sudan chooses to secede
and it would like the USG to "educate" Southern Sudanese
leaders on the dangers of separation and encourage them to
advocate for unity.

Full Document
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FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3930
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 0355
RUEHAE/AMEMBASSY ASMARA 0211
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 1374
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 0441
Content
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 CAIRO 001992

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/SPG, AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2019
TAGS: PREL, SU, SO, ER, ET, EG
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR A/S CARSON'S VISIT TO EGYPT

REF: A. CAIRO 1220
B. CAIRO 1341

Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Scobey for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1. (S/NF) Key Points:

-- Welcome to Egypt.

-- Egypt's top priority in Africa is unity of Sudan. The
Government of Egypt (GoE) supports Special Envoy (S/E)
Gration's efforts to resolve the crisis in Darfur and
encourage implementation of the CPA. Egypt believes there
will be "fatal implications" if South Sudan chooses to secede
and it would like the USG to "educate" Southern Sudanese
leaders on the dangers of separation and encourage them to
advocate for unity.

-- The GoE views the Horn of Africa as vital to its national
security interests. Instability in the region might result
in an increase in the flow of African refugees into Egypt,
threaten Egypt's access to Nile waters, and affect Egyptian
Suez Canal revenues and security in the Red Sea.

-- Egypt is a strong supporter of Somali President Shaykh
Sharif Shaykh Ahmed and the Transitional Federal Government
(TFG), but is skeptical the TFG can militarily defeat Hizb Al
Islam or Al Shibaab. Egypt would like to work with the U.S.
to reach out to Shaykh Dahir Aweys to encourage him to join
the TFG and has proposed the USG offer to remove Aweys from
the "terrorist list" in exchange for his positive
participation in a GoE-sponsored dialogue with TFG leadership.

-- The GoE has good relations with Eritrea and believes
Asmara could be part of the solution to the crises in
Somalia. Egypt is working to improve its relationship with
Ethiopia because it is the source of 85 percent of Nile
waters, but the two countries disagree over current Nile
Basin discussions on water sharing. The two countries agree
that support for the Somali TFG is important in preventing
the growth of extremism in the Horn of Africa.

-- Egypt is using development and technical assistance
through the Egyptian Fund for Technical Cooperation with
Africa (EFTCA) to increase its influence in Africa and
promote its agenda. It has proposed cooperation with USAID.

2. (C) Post warmly welcomes your visit to Cairo, which comes
as Egypt's diplomatic energies are increasingly focused on
the Horn of Africa, especially Sudan, Somalia, and Nile water
issues. The U.S. and Egypt continue to face a number of
difficult bilateral and regional issues, from Arab-Israeli
peace to democracy and human rights. However, in the wake of
President Obama's June 4 speech in Cairo and the kickoff of a
U.S.-Egypt Strategic Dialogue later that month, we have seen
new diplomatic openings and a mutual commitment to find areas
of common interest where we can work together. We have seen
some success on the multilateral front over the past weeks
and months, and we believe Africa offers another promising
area of engagement. We have already begun working more
closely with Egypt on Sudan issues, and Special Envoy for
Sudan Gration visited Egypt in April and again in August for
discussions with Egyptian leaders on resolving the Darfur
crisis and encouraging CPA implementation. A high-ranking
Africom delegation visited in September for discussions on
Sudan, Somalia, and piracy.

3. (C) Egyptian foreign policy is centered on the maintenance
of regional stability, and as GoE leaders look around their
neighborhood, it increasingly appears to them that threats to
regional stability and to Egypt's core interests could
originate from the South. Among other things, instability in
Sudan and the Horn of Africa could result in an increase in
the flow of African refugees into Egypt and could threaten
Egypt's access to Nile waters. Egypt is also concerned with
the situation in Somalia, where instability and the related
problem of piracy affects Red Sea shipping and Egyptian Suez
Canal revenues. Egyptians have additional concerns that
violence and instability in the Horn of Africa can be an
incubator for regional extremism, a phenomenon with a long
and painful history in Egypt. In response to these concerns,
the GoE takes an approach it believes is focused on promoting
peace, stability, development, and conflict resolution on the

CAIRO 00001992 002 OF 004

continent. The GoE views the USG as a potential partner in
Africa because it believes the two countries share many of
these objectives. Additionally, it feels that U.S. financial
resources and Egyptian regional expertise could be combined
to address some of the continent's problems such as poverty
and the lack of development. The GoE will likely encourage
the USG to take the "public" lead on some issues, reflecting
Egypt's aversion to risk and fear of the consequences if
these initiatives fail.

4. (C) We have requested meetings for you with Foreign
Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Egyptian General Intelligence
Services Chief Omar Soliman, and Assistant Foreign Minister
for African Affairs Mona Omar. While the MFA takes the lead
role in developing and articulating Egyptian policy toward
Africa, Soliman and several other ministries, including the
Ministry of Water, the Ministry of International Cooperation,
and the Ministry of Defense play key roles as well.

---------------------------------
Sudan's Unity is the Top Priority
---------------------------------

5. (C) Senior Egyptian officials will tell you the GoE's top
priority in Africa is the unity of Sudan. Egypt supports S/E
Gration's efforts to resolve the crises in Sudan,
participated in four-party (U.S., Egypt, Libya and Sudan)
talks on Darfur in August in Cairo, and in the June CPA
supporters' conference in Washington. Egyptian officials tell
us they believe the Government of Sudan (GoS) is serious
about resolving the crises in the country, and are optimistic
about the prospects for peace in Darfur. Egypt is working to
resolve the Sudan-Chad conflict and encourage Darfuri rebel
leaders to unite and negotiate with the GoS to facilitate
peace in Darfur. It hosted Darfuri rebel unification talks in
August and recently welcomed a visit by the envoy of Chadian
President Deby to discuss resolving the conflict with Sudan.
The GoE suggested it would be willing to host a Darfur
Reconstruction Conference in 2010 after the unification of
Darfuri factions and a final agreement in Doha are achieved.

6. (C) The GoE is concerned about the future of the CPA and
the "deteriorating" situation in South Sudan. It believes
there will be "fatal implications" if South Sudan chooses to
secede because it would result in a war that would flood
Egypt with refugees as occurred during the previous
North-South civil war, and lead to further fragmentation in
Sudan and the region. The result would be the creation of a
"non-viable" state that could threaten Egypt's access to the
Nile waters. Egypt, as the only Arab country to open a
consulate in Juba, maintains good relations with both the GoS
and the Government of South Sudan (GoSS). It has encouraged
leaders in the GoS and GoSS to focus on ways to preserve the
unity of Sudan. The Egyptian Fund for Technical Cooperation
with Africa (EFTCA) provides assistance to South Sudan as a
"benefit of unity," but also to establish strong ties in the
event South Sudan chooses to secede. The GoE built and
maintains a health clinic in Juba, is funding construction of
multiple power plants and a university, and provides
scholarships for South Sudanese to attend Egyptian
universities. In recent bilateral meetings, GoE officials
have asked the USG to "educate" Southern Sudanese leaders on
the dangers of separation and encourage them to advocate for
unity. Egypt has suggested that the 2011 referendum could be
postponed for 4-6 years until the "capacity for statehood" in
South Sudan can be developed, or the CPA could be amended to
give South Sudan autonomy for 10 years before it chooses
federation or independence. Cairo supports Khartoum's
position that a two-thirds majority in the referendum should
be required to divide Sudan, and all Southerners, including
those in Khartoum and the South Sudanese Diaspora, should be
allowed to participate in the referendum.

---------------------------------
Somalia: Reconciliation and Unity
---------------------------------

7. (S/NF) Egypt is a strong supporter of Somali President
Shaykh Sharif Shaykh Ahmed and the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG). The GoE provided training for Shaykh
Sharif's presidential guards and is prepared to provide
training to Somali police and armed forces. However, the GoE
believes the TFG is not capable of militarily defeating Al

CAIRO 00001992 003 OF 004

Shibaab and Hizb Al Islam. To resolve the problems in
Somalia, Egypt believes there must be outreach to Shaykh
Dahir Aweys to encourage him to join the TFG, and prevent Al
Shibaab from succeeding in Somalia and expanding its
influence into other countries in the region. In order to
encourage Aweys, the GoE has proposed the USG offer to remove
Aweys from the "terrorist list" in exchange for his positive
participation in a GoE-sponsored dialogue with TFG leadership.

8. (C) The GoE is concerned about the territorial integrity
of Somalia and wants to ensure that a solution for Somalia
includes the entire country, not specific regions. Egyptian
officials have queried U.S. officials about our engagement
with the governments in Puntland and Somaliland because they
believe such direct engagement could encourage separatism.
Egypt says it has a plan to assist with the "reintegration"
of these regions back into Somalia.

---------------------------------------
Piracy Needs a "Comprehensive" Solution
---------------------------------------

9. (C) Egypt is a member of the International Contact Group
on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia (CGPCS) and chairs Working
Group 4 on diplomatic and public relations. The GoE believes
piracy is a byproduct of the absence of development and
political and economic institutions in Somalia, and has
advocated in the CGPCS for a "comprehensive" approach to
dealing with piracy. Egypt held eight suspected pirates
captured during the retaking of two Egyptian fishing vessels,
the Samarah Ahmed and Momtaz 1. However, the GoE decided in
September to return the pirates to Puntland for prosecution,
contending the suspects were not involved in the original
hijacking of the ships but had been hired by the pirates to
guard the fishing vessels. Egypt questions whether
individual nations have jurisdiction to prosecute suspected
pirates and prefers to prosecute the suspects in a "regional
or international court" instead of national courts. The
Egyptian Ministry of Defense (MOD) has decided not to send
forces to participate with the international naval forces off
the coast of Somalia.

--------------------------------------------
Eritrea: Part of the Solution or the Problem
--------------------------------------------

10. (S/NF) Egypt has good relations with Eritrea and is keen
to maintain these ties at least partly in practical
acknowledgment of Eritrea's strategic position on the Red
Sea. The EFTCA provides physicians and capacity-building
training to address economic and development needs and
scholarships for Eritrean students to study in Egyptian
schools. The GoE believes Eritrea can enlist the support of
Shaykh Aweys in its proposed dialogue with the TFG, and
facilitate his rapprochement with the TFG. Egypt proposed
having the U.S. forestall potential UNSC sanctions against
Eritrea in exchange for pushing Shaykh Aweys to negotiate a
peace and cooperation agreement with TFG (reftel B). The GoE
believes this would encourage Eritrean President Afworki to
stop playing a negative role in Somalia.

11. (C) FM Aboul Gheit and EGIS Chief Soliman visited Eritrea
on September 30 and spoke with President Afworki about the
potential Eritrean role in resolving the situation in
Somalia. Both countries share the belief that the problems
in Somalia were created by the political vacuum in the
country. However, while Egypt supports the TFG, Afworki
reportedly told Soliman and Aboul Gheit he did not recognize
the TFG as legitimate. Egypt is ready to work with the U.S.
to resolve the Eritrean-Ethiopian border dispute, believing
that if unsolved Eritrea will remain "radical" and continue
to play the "spoiler role" in the region.

---------------------------------
Ethiopia: Nile Waters and Somalia
----------------------------------

12. (C) The GoE is working to improve its relationship with
Ethiopia because it is the source of 85 percent of the Nile
waters, and the two countries agree that support for the TFG
is important to controlling extremism and restoring "balance"
to the Horn of Africa. Recent discussions in the Nile Basin
Initiative over water rights have been "tense." Egypt

CAIRO 00001992 004 OF 004

believes upstream countries (including Ethiopia) should be
required to obtain the approval of downstream countries (i.e.
Egypt and Sudan) before beginning any projects that could
affect the flow of the Nile. Further, the GoE wants to
guarantee its "historical right" to 55.5 billion cubic meters
of Nile waters, which is based on a 1959 Nile agreement
signed by Egypt and Sudan. Thus, while Ethiopia has plans to
use Nile waters for agricultural development projects to feed
its burgeoning population, Egypt feels such projects would
threaten its supply of water and insists downstream countries
such as Ethiopia can use rain and wells to increase
agricultural production. The GoE is willing to provide
assistance to dig wells and build hydroelectric dams in
upstream countries to aid development, but does not support
agricultural development projects that would drain Nile water
resources.

13. (C) Egypt and Ethiopia are concerned with controlling
"Muslim extremists" in Somalia. Both countries believe they
need to support the Somali Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) to eliminate a potential foothold in the region for Al
Shibaab, and cooperation on this front could help bring the
countries closer. The two countries are divided on how to
deal with Eritrea. Addis Ababa supports sanctions on Asmara
for its role in destabilizing Somalia, while Cairo prefers to
engage with the Eritrean Government to minimize potential
threats to Djibouti, Somalia and the rest of the region.
Egypt appears to be balancing relations between the two
antipathetic states because of the value of Blue Nile waters
originating in Ethiopia and the importance of Eritrea to Red
Sea security, which directly affects Suez Canal revenues.
Scobey