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(S/NF) SUMMARY: The four car bomb blasts that hit Baghdad
December 8 bore the hallmarks of a coordinated terrorist
attack. The intended targets of two of the bombs, which may
have detonated prematurely, remain unclear. Contrary to
press reports, the Ministry of Labor was not directly
targeted or seriously damaged, although a bank building
housing Ministry of Finance operations was hit.

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VZCZCXRO2874
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #3184/01 3441734
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 101734Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5691
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
Content
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003184

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, IZ
SUBJECT: DECEMBER 8 BOMBINGS TAKE THEIR TOLL, BUT IMPACT
LIMITED

REF: A. BAGHDAD 3179
B. BAGHDAD 3174
C. STATE 125727

Classified By: Political Counselor Yuri Kim for Reasons 1.4 (b, d)

1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: The four car bomb blasts that hit Baghdad
December 8 bore the hallmarks of a coordinated terrorist
attack. The intended targets of two of the bombs, which may
have detonated prematurely, remain unclear. Contrary to
press reports, the Ministry of Labor was not directly
targeted or seriously damaged, although a bank building
housing Ministry of Finance operations was hit. Casualty
figures in the media are probably inflated as the U.S.
military and Embassy Health Attache have so far confirmed
less than 100 fatalities, although the numbers may rise.
Investigations into the bombings continue and available
information is limited and subject to revision. While the
December 8 bombings will undoubtedly put the government, and
PM Maliki personally, on the defensive and could lead to
internal shake-ups, government stability does not appear to
be at serious risk. Periodic large-scale attacks in the
capital carry high symbolic value, but have not yet
significantly disrupted the everyday lives of most Iraqis, as
the overall security situation continues to see modest
improvements. END SUMMARY.

FOUR BOMB BLASTS
----------------

2. (S/NF) Investigations into the December 8 bombings
continue and available information is still limited and
subject to revision. As of COB December 10, Post understands
that on December 8, four vehicle bombs exploded in central
Baghdad within a one-hour period. All appear to have been
suicide attacks; initial evidence and the timing of the
attacks indicate that all four car bombs were part of a
coordinated operation. Media reports have estimated the
number of dead at 112, with many more injured. However, as
of this afternoon, the U.S. military confirmed only 50
deaths, although this number will likely increase as more
casualty figures are confirmed. Embassy Health Attache
reports that hospital admissions and bed counts so far yield
63 killed and up to 479 injured.

3. (S/NF) It appears that the first bomb detonated around
10:00 a.m. in the vicinity of a security checkpoint near a
vocational and technical school. The intended target is
unknown; evidence suggests that the bomb may have exploded
prematurely. The second bombing hit a bank building housing
Ministry of Finance operations. The bomb was reportedly
transported in an ambulance.

4. (S/NF) The third car bomb detonated in the middle of an
intersection below a highway overpass. Contrary to some
press reports, the vehicle did not/not explode near the
Ministry of Labor. (NOTE: A Labor Ministry contact reported
that the building, which is a mile away from the detonation
site, suffered only a few broken windows and the collapse of
some internal ceilings from the resulting shock blast. END
NOTE.) The intended target of this bomb is also unknown; the
al-Nida Mosque is the only noteworthy structure in the
immediate vicinity of the blast. The fourth and final bomb,
reportedly transported in a van, exploded at a courthouse in
the Karkh neighborhood. According to Baghdad PRT, while the
building remains in use by the Ministry of Justice and
includes offices providing services used by large numbers of
people daily (including notary public and child welfare
services), the Karkh appellate courts formerly housed in the
facility relocated to a new building in June 2008.

A SENSE OF PERSPECTIVE
----------------------

5. (C) To be sure, these attacks, like the large-scale
bombings on August 19 and October 25, have generated large
Qbombings on August 19 and October 25, have generated large
amounts of negative publicity for the GOI and have wounded
the "law and order" credentials of PM Maliki. Still, the
overall security trend in Iraq is positive, and government --
and politics -- continue to function in the face of the
attacks.

6. (C) Despite Maliki's public call yesterday for Iraqis to
show "solidarity" after the bombings and his warning against
"divisions among the Iraqi people and among political
forces," the blame game has already started. Maliki's
lengthy appearance today before the Council of
Representatives (COR) (septel), likely to be followed by the
Interior and Defense Ministers, and last night's dismissal of
the head of the Baghdad Operations Center (BOC), General
Aboud Qanbar, are visible signs that the government is under

BAGHDAD 00003184 002 OF 002

stress. (Note: The BOC reports to the PM's office and
routinely tasks Ministry of Defense (MOD) and Ministry of
Interior (MOI) forces within Baghdad. Contacts report that
the MOD and MOI are awaiting written verification of a change
in Baghdad Operations Command (BOC) leadership. End Note.)
At a lunch at the Embassy on December 9, Deputy Minister of
Interior Adnan al-Asadi, a Da'wa Party loyalist, told the DCM
that Qanbar had been removed "to please the politicians; what
else can we do?" He stated that the move would likely not
lead to any major operational changes at the BOC, although he
asserted that GOI investigative efforts to detect terrorist
networks would be redoubled.

7. (C) Outside of Baghdad, with the notable exception of
Ninewa, the overall security situation in Iraq has been
relatively quiet in recent months; several provinces have
seen drops in violence. According to the MOI, fewer
civilians were killed during the month of November as a
result of war-related violence than in any other month since
the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. The heavily populated Shia
areas in the south of the country, where a large chunk of PM
Maliki's potential voter support base resides, have been
particularly calm. The Baghdad bombings, while of high
symbolic value, appear to have little direct impact on the
day-to-day lives of most Iraqis.

8. (S/NF) Iraqi government institutions have proven more
resilient than many had believed. However, more regular
large-scale bombings, or a marked and prolonged deterioration
in security conditions outside the capital, could change the
current equation. Similar attacks are possible in the near
future as core al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) cells remain. Maliki's
opponents stand ready to seize opportunities to discredit him
and pre-election campaigning will likely make the political
atmosphere nastier.
HILL