From: <a href="http://www.aftenposten.no/spesial/wikileaksdokumenter/article3957585.ece">Aftenposten</a><br>
Date: 22. 2. 2010 

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S E C R E T SEOUL 000272
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958:
DECL: 02/22/2034
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KNNP, ECON, SOCI, KS, KN, JA, CH
SUBJECT: VFM CHUN YOUNG-WOO ON SINO-NORTH KOREAN RELATIONS
Classified By: AMB D. Kathleen Stephens. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 

Summary
------- 

1. (S)
Vice Foreign Minister Chun Yung-woo told the Ambassador
February 17th that China would not be able to stop North
Koreas collapse following the death of Kim Jong-il (KJI). The
DPRK, Chun said, had already collapsed economically and would
collapse politically two to three years after the death of Kim
Jong-il. Chun dismissed ROK media reports that Chinese
companies had agreed to pump 10 billion USD into the Norths
economy. Beijing had "no will" to use its modest economic
leverage to force a change in Pyongyangs policies -- and the
DPRK leadership "knows it." It was "a very bad thing" that Wu
Dawei -- whom Chun characterized as "the most incompetent
official in China" -- had retained his position as chief of
the PRCs 6PT delegation. Describing a generational difference
in Chinese attitudes toward North Korea, Chun claimed Vice
Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai and another senior PRC official
from the younger generation both believed Korea should be
unified under ROK control. Chun acknowledged the Ambassadors
point that a strong ROK-Japan relationship would help Tokyo
accept a reunified Korean Peninsula. End summary.

VFM Chun on Sino-North Korean Relations...
------------------------------------------

2. (S)
During a February 17 lunch hosted by Ambassador Stephens that
covered other topics (septel), ROK Vice Foreign Minister and
former ROK Six-Party Talks (6PT) Head of Delegation Chun
Yung-woo predicted that China would not be able to stop North
Koreas collapse following the death of Kim Jong-il (KJI). The
DPRK, Chun said, had already collapsed economically; following
the death of KJI, North Korea would collapse politically in
"two to three years." Chun dismissed ROK media reports that
Chinese companies had agreed to pump 10 billion USD into the
Norths economy; there was "no substance" to the reports, he
said. The VFM also ridiculed the Chinese foreign ministrys
"briefing" to the ROK embassy in Beijing on Wang Jiaruis visit
to North Korea; the unidentified briefer had "basically read a
Xinhua press release," Chun groused, adding that the PRC
interlocutor had been unwilling to answer simple questions
like whether Wang had flown to Hamhung or taken a train there
to meet KJI.

3. (S)
The VFM commented that China had far less influence on North
Korea "than most people believe." Beijing had "no will" to use
its economic leverage to force a change in Pyongyangs policies
and the DPRK leadership "knows it." Chun acknowledged that the
Chinese genuinely wanted a denuclearized North Korea, but the
PRC was also content with the status quo. Unless China pushed
North Korea to the "brink of collapse," the DPRK would likely
continue to refuse to take meaningful steps on
denuclearization.

...Chinas "Most Incompetent" Official... 
----------------------------------------- 

4. (S)
Turning to the Six Party Talks, Chun said it was "a very bad
thing" that Wu Dawei had retained his position as chief of the
PRCs delegation. It had been the ROKs expectation that Vice
Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai, who was hastily transferred from
Tokyo back to Beijing, would be taking over from Wu. Chun said
it appeared that the DPRK "must have lobbied extremely hard"
for the now-retired Wu to stay on as Chinas 6PT chief. The VFM
complained that Wu is the PRCs "most incompetent official," an
arrogant, Marx-spouting former Red Guard who "knows nothing
about North Korea, nothing about nonproliferation and is hard
to communicate with because he doesnt speak English." Wu was
also a hardline nationalist, loudly proclaiming -- to anyone
willing to listen -- that the PRCs economic rise represented a
"return to normalcy" with China as a great world power.

...Chinas "New Generation" of Korea-Hands... 
--------------------------------------------- 

5. (S)
Sophisticated Chinese officials like Cui Tiankai and Chinese
Communist Party Central Committee International Department
Vice Director Liu Jieyi stood in sharp contrast to Wu,
according to VFM Chun. Citing private conversations during
previous sessions of the Six Party Talks, Chun claimed Cui and
Liu both believed Korea should be unified under ROK control.
The two officials, Chun said, were ready to "face the new
reality" that the DPRK now had little value to China as a
buffer state -- a view that since North Koreas 2006 nuclear
test had reportedly gained traction among senior PRC leaders.

...PRC Actions In A DPRK Collapse Scenario...
--------------------------------------------- 

6. (S)
Chun argued that, in the event of a North Korean collapse,
China would clearly "not welcome" any U.S. military presence
north of the DMZ. Again citing his conversations with Cui
Tiankai and Liu Jieyi, Chun said the PRC would be comfortable
with a reunified Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the
United States in a "benign alliance" -- as long as Korea was
not hostile towards China. Tremendous trade and labor-export
opportunities for Chinese companies, Chun said, would also
help salve PRC concerns about living with a reunified Korea.
Chun dismissed the prospect of a possible PRC military
intervention in the event of a DPRK collapse, noting that
Chinas strategic economic interests now lie with the United
States, Japan, and South Korea -- not North Korea. Moreover,
Chun argued, bare-knuckle PRC military intervention in a DPRK
internal crisis could "strengthen the centrifugal forces in
Chinas minority areas."

...and Japan
------------ 

7. (S)
Chun acknowledged the Ambassadors point that a strong
ROK-Japan relationship would help Tokyo accept a reunified
Korean Peninsula under Seouls control. Chun asserted that,
even though "Japans preference" was to keep Korea divided,
Tokyo lacked the leverage to stop reunification in the event
the DPRK collapses.

STEPHENS
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