From: <a href="http://www.aftenposten.no/spesial/wikileaksdokumenter/article3981740.ece">Aftenposten</a><br>
Date: 31.03.2009
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C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000216
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958:
DECL: 03/31/2019
TAGS: PINR, PREL, EINV, RU, NO
SUBJECT: LAVROV AND STOERE TRADE TOUGH WORDS OVER NATO,
BUSINESS DISPUTE
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission, Kevin M. Johnson
for reasons 1.4 b and d

1. (C) Summary: During his March 24-25 Moscow visit FM Stoere
clashed with FM Lavrov over the Telenor-Alfa Bank business
dispute and NATO issues. On the Arctic Council, Svalbard,
Afghanistan, Iran, the Middle East and energy cooperation,
discussions were characterized by the normal positive
atmosphere between the two ministers. Following the meetings,
XXXXX briefed Embassy Oslo,
highlighting the GONs wish for U.S. attention to the Arctic
and the Secretarys participation in the April 28-29 Arctic
Council Ministerial. The GON is concerned that Russia may
drift in a more aggressive line and believes U.S. presence at
the Arctic Council is necessary to balance this. The GON also
seeks a relaunch of a U.S.-Norway High North dialogue. End
Summary

Stoere objects to the Shakedown of Telenor
------------------------------------------

2. (C) XXXXX stated that despite their
good personal relationship, Stoere and Lavrovs discussions
over the Telenor-Alfa Bank business dispute were rough and
tense. The GON-owned Telenor (53.9% state ownership) is locked
in a heated dispute with the Alfa Group over control of their
joint company Vimpelcom (Telenor 30% Alfa 40% share), a
Russian mobile phone operator. Telenor has been in the Russian
market since 1992 and in partnership with Alfa from 1998.
Trouble between the partners began in 2004 over Alfas wish to
expand into Ukraine, leading to a series of court cases which
have not resolved the issue. Through questionable legal
maneuvers conducted by a front company, Alfa won the most
recent court case on March 11, resulting in the seizing of
Telenors shares in Vimpelcom, currently worth about 1.8
billion dollars (11.8 billion NOK) and their possible forced
sale. Under Russian law these shares could be sold before the
appeal (currently scheduled for May 26) is heard.

3. (C) Stoere challenged Lavrov to ensure that Telenors shares
are not sold before their appeal can be heard. He stressed the
damage that Russias economy would suffer if it continues to be
unpredictable and arbitrary. The abrupt fall in the Russian
stock market on the day the Telenor verdict was announced was
proof of this. Lavrov objected to Stoeres statement that the
Russian economy was unpredictable and accused Telenor of
stopping Russian investment into Ukraine and other former
Soviet states in the interest of limiting Russian influence
over these areas. Lavrov suggested the TNK-BP model of
resolution where BP was forced to cede control and shares to
TNK at less than market values, a solution which would not be
welcome to the GON.

Real and Imagined Tensions over NATO
------------------------------------

4. (C) Pointing to the NATO meeting held in Reykjavik in
January, the NATO Cold Response exercise held in
February-March in Northern Norway, and a Norwegian video game,
Lavrov criticized NATO for unnecessarily increasing tensions
in the Arctic. Demonstrating impressive research by the
Russian Embassy in Oslo, Lavrov objected to the video game
Naval War: Arctic Circle, to be released in 2010 by a
Norwegian company, Turbo Tape Games (which recently received a
substantial grant from the Norwegian Film Institute) and which
depicts Russia as the enemy in a conflict over Arctic
resources. On the NATO Russia Council Lavrov welcomed new
meetings but insisted that they be at the same level as before
the Georgian war. He also asked why there have been no
discussions on human rights violations in Georgia or NATO
shipment of weapons to Georgia.

5. (C) Stoere responded strongly, saying that Norway and NATO
have the right to rehearse military maneuvers and that Lavrov
should look in the mirror before criticizing NATO military
activities in the Arctic, given the substantial increase in
Russian military activities in the area. Stoere also urged
Russian leaders to make an effort to change Russias image of
the enemy and of the West, particularly in the north where
bilateral cooperation is strong. Stoere also pressed Lavrov
for an explanation on why there has been no substantial
progress in the NATO Russia Council.

Less Tension on High North Arctic / Svalbard Issues
---------------------------------------------------

6. (C) There was only a brief mention of Svalbard, and
surprisingly Lavrov did not raise any of Russias standard
issues of principle. The ministers discussed Barents
cooperation issues, including the implementation of visa-free
travel for residents, fishing, the maritime border, and
nuclear safety issues. Although agreeing on the importance of
the Arctic Council, Stoere and Lavrov discussed their
different views of expanding membership, with Russia objecting
to a wider membership, particularly the EU.

Energy and Carbon Capture
-------------------------

7. (C) In discussions over development of Shtockman Lavrov
maintained that a decision on investment would be taken at the
end of this year. He did not believe the financial crisis
would impact this decision. Lavrov was also very interested in
Stoeres explanation of the GONs carbon capture and storage
program. Lavrov complained to Stoere that the European
Commission had gone behind his back in making a deal with
Ukraine on gas supplies before the Commission-Russia-Ukraine
meeting in Brussels the week of March 16. The Norwegian MFA
feels that the EU-Russia energy relationship was not good,
even claiming that the Russian purposely created traffic and
passport problems to ensure that Commissioner Ferroro-Waldner
missed her flight during a recent visit to Moscow.

Afghanistan, Iran and the Middle East
-------------------------------------

8. (C) Lavrov had just returned from a visit to Afghanistan
and was struck by the bad security situation. He said that
Russia was considering offering training and small arms
assistance to the Afghan police. On Iran, Lavrov welcomed U.S.
engagement and stated that Iran is ready to use its leverage
in the region positively, but needs to know what they will
receive in return. Without prompting, Lavrov mentioned that if
Iran is brought into greater engagement with the world, Russia
would even welcome the Nabucco pipeline. Lavrov also mentioned
Russias intent to host a Middle East meeting in Moscow during
the summer, using the Annapolis format.

Will Norway Keep their Russian Rose-Colored Glasses?
----------------------------------------------------

9. (C) Comment: The GON is growing more concerned about
developments in Russia, although they are careful to
continually stress the positive developments in the bilateral
relationship. The GON continues to (perhaps wishfully) explain
away negative developments in Russia. The latest example was
the dismissal of the long-standing governor in Murmansk, after
accusations of treason for giving away resources and being too
friendly to Scandinavians and Americans. This was
characterized as sad, but not an attack on the
Norwegian-Russian relationship and was not raised by Stoere in
his meetings with Lavrov.

10. (C) It has taken the Telenor business dispute to slightly
sharpen Norways criticism of Russia. Despite this serious
dispute, the GON wishes to continue good relations with Russia
possibly because it does not see any way to effectively
counter Russian moves without damaging Norwegian interests.
Oil and Energy Minister Riis-Johansens April 22-24 visit to
Russia and PM Stoltenbergs May 19 visit to Moscow will show if
the GON maintains a positive approach to Russia.

11. (C) Despite the generally rosy outlook, the GON is aware
that the potential for trouble with Russia could be rising.
The decision to directly brief the U.S. Embassy in Moscow on
the Ministers meetings is indicative of the GON wish for the
U.S. to counterbalance increased Russia activity in the
Arctic. Norway and FM Stoere (helped by the Russians increased
activity) have succeeded in raising NATO and U.S. awareness of
the Arctic and Barents region but have been struggling to
determine what steps they would like to see the U.S. take in
the region, beside ratification of the Law of the Sea. In his
April 6 meeting with the Secretary, FM Stoere will likely ask
for increased dialogue with the U.S. on creative ways to
engage in the Arctic and with Russia. Officials from the MFA
are scheduled to visit Washington in May to speak with the
State Department on a possible restart of the U.S.-Norway High
North Dialogue, with a focus on issues such as climate,
shipping, energy, Arctic research and resource management. End
Comment.

WHITNEY
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