From: <a href="http://www.aftenposten.no/spesial/wikileaksdokumenter/article3990393.ece">Aftenposten</a><br>
Date: 05.07.2006
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C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 001673 
SIPDIS 
NOFORN SIPDIS 
STATE FOR NEA/MAG - HARRIS
STATE PLEASE PASS USTR - BELL
USDOC FOR CLDP - TEJTEL AND ITA/MAC/ONE (NMASON)
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2016
TAGS: PREL, ECON, PGOV, EFIN, ETRD, EINV, KDEM, TS
SUBJECT: CORRUPTION IN TUNISIA PART III: POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS
REF: A. TUNIS 1630 B. TUNIS 1622 C. TUNIS 1255 D. TUNIS 311
E. 05 TUNIS 2266 F. 05 TUNIS 896
Classified By: AMBASSADOR WILLIAM HUDSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d)

1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: This is the third of a four cable series on
corruptions impact on the Tunisian economy and political
future. Domestic frustration is growing with the rumored vast
commercial holdings of Tunisias First Family: President Ben
Ali, wife Leila (Trabelsi) Ben Ali and their extended clan,
and more and more Tunisians are willing to openly discuss the
familys alleged corruption. However, severely limited freedom
of speech and minimal political activism have restricted
public discourse on the topic to date. Our ability to promote
freedom of expression, a cornerstone of our Freedom Agenda for
Tunisia, is directly hindered by the fact that greater freedom
of expression would likely lead to public criticism of the
Familys corruption. At the same time, the Familys interests
complicate Ben Alis own avowed "plan" for political reform
because any viable successor or opposition could be viewed as
a threat to the familys economic interests. Part three of this
series details the political implications of the familys
alleged corruption. END SUMMARY.

THE IMPACT
----------

2. (C/NF) While corruption in Tunisia may be on a smaller
scale than in some developing countries, the political
relevance of the rumors is notable because corruption -- at
least as a topic of public conversation -- is a relatively new
phenomenon in Tunisia. Conspicuous consumption -- from
extravagant properties to luxury cars -- was not common in
Tunisia ten years ago. Tunisians are increasingly frustrated
with this new development and are confused about its relevance
to their daily lives. Under President Bourguiba, Tunisians
focused on achieving a good education and comfortable
lifestyle, both goals Bourguiba himself embodied. Today, elite
Tunisians boldly, if not publicly, denounce Ben Ali and the
Trabelsi family as uneducated and uncultured nouveaux riches
whose conspicuous consumption is an affront to all patriotic
Tunisians. Some fear that this new phenomenon is sucking the
life-blood out of Tunisia -- leading to a spiraling
educational, moral, social and economic decline. Worse, many
civil society activists speculate that corruption --
particularly that of First Lady Leila (Trabelsi) Ben Ali and
the broader Trabelsi clan -- is the fundamental impediment to
meaningful political liberalization.

3. (C/NF) Despite this, most Tunisians seem to be focused on
their personal standard of living and are unwilling to risk
their own socio-economic status by publicly denouncing the Ben
Ali clans rumored corruption. Unlike a generation ago, Tunisia
now has a large middle class with typical middle class
aspirations. A business contact explained that students are
more interested in their prospects for a family, home
ownership and buying a car than in being politically active.
The European Commissions Head of Delegation believes that the
average citizen is kept "happy" through increased consumption.
While average Tunisians continue to complain about the rising
cost of living and the Familys rumored corruption, some are
beginning to reflect on the possible link between the two.

4. (C/NF) Despite this, embassy contacts do not yet believe
any opposition movements could gain significant domestic
support under the anti-corruption banner. Most dismiss the
theory that Tunisias latent Islamist movement could obtain
widespread support by advancing an anti-corruption platform
similar to the one that led Hamas to victory in Palestinian
elections. (NOTE: It remains unclear how non-elites might
respond to this type of opposition. END NOTE.) Civil society
activists, while quick to offer examples of the Ben Ali clans
corruption, are more likely to complain about the lack of
freedom and political space than to focus on corruption. It
remains uncommon for Tunisians to suggest that Ben Ali should
go on the basis of corruption alone or to make any specific
comment regarding the Presidents political future, other than
that they expect him to stay for life. Thus, while
international and domestic critics increasingly call for
political reform, few Tunisians are willing to be politically
active, and their concerns over corruption do not appear
strong enough to motivate greater involvement.

THE FUTURE
----------

5. (C/NF) Meanwhile, the entrenched position of the President
and his family only increases the difficulties domestic and
international entities, including the USG, face in encouraging
political reform in Tunisia. As Ben Ali himself has suggested
that he will one day be a "retired" president (Ref D), it is
not overly optimistic to believe that his glacially slow
political reform "plan" may include increased political
liberties and eventually his own departure. However, those who
believe that Ben Ali is more of a benevolent father than a
corrupt dictator argue that the Familys corruption (and
particularly Leila Ben Alis personal influence) is the root
cause of his refusal to leave office and/or accelerate
political openness. Given the popularity of corruption as a
topic of discussion in private circles, it is extremely likely
that increased freedom of speech, one of our main Freedom
Agenda goals, would spark public discussions of corruption and
the Presidents family. In fact, it appears that the corruption
rumors are directly contributing to the stagnant state of the
domestic press. The prominent case of lawyer Mohamed Abbou,
who was jailed after writing about Trabelsi family influence
and corruption, shows the extent the GOT will go to prevent
public criticism of the Familys activities (Ref F). One
contact explains that Ben Ali and his family are "red lines"
which Tunisians know not to cross.

6. (C/NF) In addition, the Familys vested financial interests
mean that any presidential succession scenario would likely
require some kind of financial guarantees for the Family that
Tunisias still-developing economy may not be able to support
or that Tunisian public opinion would reject. During a recent
meeting with Deputy Secretary Zoellick (Ref C), a Tunisian
representative of XXXXX said that for
a significant shift in the political status quo, it is
necessary that those "close to the President" be given
assurances that they would "continue to be taken care of"
following the departure of Ben Ali. He added that such an
arrangement would be a tall order for the USG diplomatically,
but that without such assurances to Ben Alis inner circle, a
more open political system would be difficult. Some surmise
that a 2005 law regarding "the benefits for former presidents"
was crafted precisely to provide for the economic well being
of Ben Alis immediate family (Ref E) in the event of a
peaceful transition. However, the benefits outlined in this
law would not provide nearly the standard of living to which
the President and his relatives are accustomed.

7. (C/NF) Others allege that President Ben Ali may have
manipulated state coffers to provide for his future. As the
Presidency has a separate budget account, it is possible that
this funding source could have been utilized to allow Ben Ali
to direct funds into personal accounts. Unlike some notorious
rulers, however, there is limited evidence to support this
allegation, and the Presidents almost nonexistent foreign
travel does not foreshadow that he is planning a luxurious
retirement in Europe or elsewhere. However, recently some
rumors have circulated that the extended family is beginning
to liquidate and consolidate its domestic holdings and shift
some assets overseas in preparation for Ben Alis ultimate
departure or demise. Contacts cite these rumors as evidence
that the Ben Ali regime is entering its last days and the
President and his family are looking to make off with their
fortune.

8. (C/NF) There is other evidence that the Trabelsi family is
positioning itself for a future political transition.
Tunisians rarely discuss Ben Alis political maneuvers without
mentioning Leila Ben Alis own political power and aspirations.
Cabinet reshuffles and official appointments are generally
believed to go to personal allies of the President, or the
First Lady. The recent removal of a senior MOI official was
believed to be due to a falling out with the President, while
Foreign Minister Abdallah is rumored to been "kicked out" of
the Palace (and installed in the MFA) following an altercation
with Leila Ben Ali. The scope of these political relationships
are one way the Trabelsi clan are believed to be securing
family members financial well-being -- by installing enough
influential GOT allies to guarantee they will not be excluded.

9. (C/NF) COMMENT: The corruption rumors -- true or false --
are clearly working against our efforts to speed democratic
reform in Tunisia. As long as such rumors continue to spread,
it is unlikely the GOT will increase political space that
could facilitate public discourse likely to be harshly
critical of the President. Additionally, presidential
succession options are limited by the need to cover-up past
illicit activities. However, the lack of Tunisian political
activism, or even awareness, seems to be a more serious
impediment. While frustration with the First Familys
corruption may eventually lead to increased demands for
political liberalization, it does not yet appear to be
heralding the end of the Ben Ali era. END COMMENT.

HUDSON
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