From: <a href="http://www.aftenposten.no/spesial/wikileaksdokumenter/article3954374.ece">Aftenposten</a><br>
Date: 6.3.2004

<pre>
3/6/2004
8:31
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000406
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, S/CT, SA/INS, INR/NESA
NSC FOR E. MILLARD E.O. 12958:
DECL: 03/08/14 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINR, MOPS, CE, NO, Elections, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka: Ignoring orders of LTTE 
leadership, rebel commander remains ensconced in east
Refs: (A) Ops Center - Colombo 03/08/2004 telecon
- (B) FBIS Reston Va DTG 060831Z Mar 04 
- (C) Oslo 419 
- (D) Colombo 387, and previous
(U) Classified by Charge´d´Affaires James F. Entwistle. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

1. (C)
SUMMARY: The main Tamil Tiger organization in the north
announced March 6 that it was replacing a dissident commander.
The commander, Karuna, has refused to step down, however, and
remains ensconced in his eastern jungle base. No violence has
been reported, but the situation is becoming increasingly
tense in the east. The GSL has indicated that it has no plans
to deal directly with Karuna despite his requests that it do
so. In the meantime, the campaign for the April 2
parliamentary elections proceeds apace in the rest of the
country. Karuna´s split from the main LTTE organization
appears to be the most serious internal crisis ever faced by
the group. If there is no resolution to the situation, there
will almost certainly be complications for the peace track
down the road. END SUMMARY.

==================================== 
LTTE Acts to replace Rebel Commander 
====================================

2. (U)
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) have reacted to
eastern military commander Karuna´s recent moves to separate
his command from the main organization (see Ref D). On March
6, LTTE Political chief S.P. Thamilchelvam, speaking at a
press conference held in the northern LTTE-controlled town of
Kilinochchi, announced that Karuna had been removed from his
position. An official statement posted on the pro-Tiger
website "TamilNet" explained the decision in the following
(choppy) manner: "Mr. Karuna, who was commander of
Batticaloa-Ampara, instigated by some malicious elements
opposed to the Tamil Eelam liberation struggle, acting
traitorously to the Tamil people and the Tamil Eelam national
leadership, has planned to secede himself from the liberation
organization. The commanders, divisional heads and cadres
under him unable to acquiesce with his traitorous act have
refused to comply with his orders and met with the national
leadership, and explained the ground reality prevailing there.
In accordance with this, Karuna has been discharged from the
Liberation Tiger organization and relieved from official
responsibilities."

3. (U)
The LTTE statement went on to name Ramesh (formerly Karuna´s
deputy) as "special commander" of the Batticaloa/Ampara
sector, Karuna´s former political adviser Kaushlyan was
retained as political head, and two other cadre, Ram and
Prabha, were named as commander and deputy commander
respectively. Speaking at the press conference following the
announcement of Karuna´s expulsion from the Tigers, Ramesh
stated "the decision Karuna has made is his own. He has not
discussed this with the leadership. The commanders, officials,
and fighters do not accept the decisions he has made on his
own." Joining in the wave of criticism of Karuna was former
Batticaloa/Ampara Tiger political head Karikalan, who was
quoted by TamilNet as stating: "Karuna will be seen as a Pol
Pot if he continues to act irresponsibly towards our people."
Thamilchelvam was also quoted as stating, "our leader is
always ready to provide amnesty to those who realize their
mistakes and I have high hopes that Karuna will be given
amnesty." He also indicated that the LTTE continues to support
the peace process, stating: "our leadership and our structures
remain firmly committed to peaceful negotiations and the
ceasefire agreement, and this isolated issue will not affect
the peace initiative."

====================== 
Karuna remains Defiant
======================

4. (SBU)
For his part, Karuna remains defiant in the face of his
expulsion from the LTTE. Karuna, in an interview with a local
newspaper, was quoted as stating: "We will not take orders
from Prabhakaran." He also asserted that the LTTE had sent out
"killer squads" in an effort to assassinate him. Karuna told
the BBC that he was willing to return to the main LTTE
organization if guarantees were given that eastern LTTE
personnel would receive the same treatment as northern
elements from now on. (Karuna has said his rebellion is based,
in part, on his view that northern LTTE members do not respect
members from the east.) Karuna also demanded the removal of
several high-level officials serving LTTE leader V.
Prabhakaran, including Intelligence Chief Pottu Aman. Numerous
media reports also carried statements from Karuna´s spokesman,
Varanthan, to the effect that the breakaway faction of the
LTTE controlled by Karuna would function as an independent
unit and would continue to observe the ceasefire "even though
we are not a party to it." Varathan also said the LTTE´s
official statement of expulsion "lacked logic," as Karuna had
already made a decision to leave the group. In a press report
late on March 8, Varathan said the dissident faction of the
Tigers controlled by Karuna would consider "a friendly
partnership" with Prabhakaran, but he did not provide further
details.

5. (C)
Estimates vary wildly, but there may be as many as six
thousand LTTE personnel in the eastern district who remain
loyal to Karuna. (There are unconfirmed reports that the main
LTTE organization may be preventing up to 600 eastern cadre
who have been based in the north from returning to the east.)
Karuna himself is said to be ensconced deep in bases in the
Thoppigalla jungle located west of Batticaloa city. These
long-time LTTE bases are said to be well- fortified. That
said, it is not clear what financial resources Karuna´s group
has, and whether it has significant supplies of food and
ammunition for the long haul.

===========================
Heightened Tensions in East 
===========================

6. (SBU)
While the majority of Mission´s contacts in the east describe
the situation there as calm for the most part, an underlying
mood of tension has been developing since Karuna´s defection
from the main organization on March 3. Contacts at the Sri
Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) confirm that at least two
pro-Karuna protests took place in Batticaloa district on March 7.
Effigies of Tiger leader V. Prabakharan and newly appointed
eastern commander Ramesh were burnt in both demonstrations.
Pro-Karuna elements also sponsored a hartal (work stoppage) on
March 8 in Tamil areas of Batticaloa and Ampara Districts that
was successful in closing down some shops. In a related
development, examinations have been postponed at Eastern
University, located 20 kilometers south of Batticaloa city,
and student housing at the Tamil-dominated university has been
closed down and students told to leave.

7. (C)
Although tensions are inching up, no violence has been
reported. Contacts indicate a significant increase in the
number of LTTE forces gathering in an area dividing
Trincomalee District from Batticaloa District, however. Kurt
Spur of the SLMM´s Trincomalee office told poloff March 8 that
there had been a "large increase" in the number of LTTE cadre
gathered near the town of Verugal in this area. The forces in
the Verugal area appear to be loyal to the main LTTE
organization. It is not clear whether these forces plan to
enter Batticaloa District in an attempt to oust Karuna. (There
are reports that the main LTTE organization has arrested
Pathuman, the political chief for Trincomalee. The reports are
unconfirmed, but Pathuman may have been arrested because he is
considered pro-Karuna.)

============================
GSL Takes "Hands-off" Policy 
============================

8. (C)
The Sri Lankan government appears to be sticking to a "hands
off" policy regarding the LTTE crisis. Late March 5, Defense
Secretary Cyril Herath rejected the idea of negotiating a
separate ceasefire pact with Karuna´s breakaway faction,
stating in a press interview "when there is one ceasefire
agreement signed between the Prime Minister and Prabhakaran,
how can we have another?" (Per Ref D, Karuna had approached
the Sri Lankan military last week and offered to negotiate a
separate ceasefire accord for the east.) Karuna was reportedly
not happy with this response from the GSL, and was quoted as
stating that if the government did not deal with his faction
"I will be forced to display my strength." Despite reports to
the contrary in the local press, the Sri Lankan military has
said it is not on "high alert." Military spokesman Colonel
Sumeda Perera told poloff March 8 that the military was
closely monitoring the situation in the east, however.

9. (SBU)
As of March 8, both President Kumaratunga´s People´s Alliance
(PA) party and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe´s United National
Party (UNP) continue to remain virtually mum regarding the
LTTE rift. In one of the few instances of comment on the Tiger
situation by a political entity in the south, the Patriotic
National Movement (PNM), an extremist Sinhalese group linked
to the radical Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party, issued a
statement on March 7. The statement alleged that the split in
the LTTE presented an opportunity for the south to undermine
the LTTE and perhaps destroy the group. The PNM asserted that
the SLMM should not get in the middle of the situation and
criticized the PM for not using the situation in a way that
would break up the LTTE organization.

=========================================
Parliamentary Election Campaign continues 
=========================================

10. (SBU)
Against the backdrop of the recent developments in the Tiger
organization, the campaign for Sri Lanka´s upcoming April 2
parliamentary elections continues apace. President Kumaratunga
and PM Wickremesinghe have been speaking in front of large
rallies in various parts of the country. Candidates have also
been engaged in canvassing in a normal fashion. Based on what
Mission is hearing, campaigning continues in LTTE-influenced
areas like Jaffna and Trincomalee. Some canvassing is
reportedly even taking place in Batticaloa and Ampara
Districts, though at a lower level than before the LTTE
crisis. In other election-related developments, a team of
election monitors from the European Union arrived in Sri Lanka
on March 7. The leader of the EU´s monitors, John Cushnahan, a
senior European parliamentarian, is slated to arrive on March
10. The EU team will consist of roughly sixty monitors when it
is fully on the ground (twenty are expected to arrive this
coming weekend).

======= 
COMMENT 
=======

11. (C)
The exact dimensions of Karuna´s split from the main LTTE
organization are as yet unclear. As touched on above, there
are conflicting reports, for example, over whether the bulk of
LTTE forces in the east remain loyal to Karuna, or to the main
LTTE organization. Moreover, although it took the step to fire
Karuna in a very public manner, it remains unclear whether the
LTTE plans to move quickly to try to oust him (or worse), or
to proceed more cautiously, perhaps because it does not yet
have enough forces in place in the east to take action against
him. In any case, Karuna´s split from the main LTTE
organization appears to be the most serious internal crisis
ever faced by the group.

12. (C)
If the situation is not resolved quickly, there will be
implications for the peace process. In the near-term, there
does not appear to be any serious threat to the informal peace
process, though out-and-out warfare between rival LTTE
factions could lead to serious complications in affected
areas. In the longer term, however, the Norwegian facilitators
will have their hands full monitoring the ceasefire accord and
trying to resume peace talks if there are two de facto LTTE
groups, one in the north and the other in the east. END
COMMENT.

13. (U) Minimize considered.

ENTWISTLE 
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