S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000953 SIPDIS STATE FOR A/S FRIED, 
U/S ROOD E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2018 TAGS: PREL, MARR, PARM, NATO, 
KCFE, RU, GG, PL SUBJECT: TFGG01: POLAND'S CHOD ON GEORGIA, UKRAINE, AND
MISSILE DEFENSE REF: WARSAW 00949 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires 
Quanrud for reason 1.4(b and d) 

1. (S) SUMMARY. In an August 13 meeting 
with DATT, General Gagor, Polish CHOD criticized Georgian President 
Saakashvili for playing into Russian hands, leaving in ruins both his 
army as well as Georgia's MAP candidacy. Poland is convinced Russia's 
success in Georgia will boost hard-liners in Moscow, who will be able to
point to a very capable performance over the past week. Georgia has 
requested from Poland both air defense GROM launchers/rockets and 
anti-tank FAGGOT missiles; should Poland decide to provide the weapons, 
it will request US airlift to Georgia. Gagor called for a U.S.-Polish 
effort to convince Germany to back accelerated MAP for Ukraine; had 
Georgia been accepted for MAP in April, the Russian attack would not 
have occurred. The conflict in Georgia has bled over into Polish-US 
Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) negotiations, confirming GoP views on 
the threat from Russia and the need for Patriot missiles to defend 
Poland. End Summary.

RUSSIAN INTENTIONS 

2. (S) Asked about next steps 
and intentions of the Russians, Gagor said (adding that he is supported 
by discussions with senior Polish officials) Saaskashvili made an 
extremely bad decision to move into South Ossetia and played directly 
into Russia's hands. Poland believes Saakashvili was manipulated by 
Russian agents -- possibly even among his advisors -- to open the door 
for military action in Georgia with the object of destabilizing the 
Georgian government. Russian motivations are energy related -- to 
disrupt pipelines in Georgia -- and to de-rail Georgian NATO MAP 
aspiration's before the December NATO ministerial. Georgia's "stupid" 
move only benefits Moscow and greatly strengthens resurgent forces in 
Russia. It has ruined the Georgian military and any chance for future 
NATO membership -- clearly a goal of Moscow. Poland is convinced that 
Putin is in charge of events and that Medvedev is only doing Putin's 
bidding. Gagor had no insight on whether Russia would advance to Tbilisi
but stated the Georgian military is in no condition to prevent further 
Russian military action.

RUSSIAN MILITARY PERFORMANCE 

3. (S) Gagor 
continued that the Russian military proved it is still very capable; 
particularly in regards to intelligence, reconnaissance, and electronic 
warfare. This will give a boost to hard-line leaders in Moscow and "we 
will see more resources pushed to the military."

IMPACT ON US-POLISH MD TALKS 

4. (S) Gagor then volunteered the impact of the Georgian crisis on
US-PL missile defense negotiations. (NB: U/S Rood and DASD Green arrive
in Warsaw today for negotiations.) Russian actions in Georgia prove 
Polish assessments on the Russian threat correct and US and NATO 
assessments wrong. The situation in Georgia proves that Russia is 
unpredictable and that the use of military force remains an option for 
Moscow. Polish officials now believe even more strongly that Poland's 
security must be strengthened and that the deployment of Patriots in 
Poland is even more critical. 

5. (S) Regarding the latest US non-paper 
on Patriot options, Gagor said the Polish Government is not satisfied 
with Phase II of the plan -- which states: "The equipment for the 
Patriot battery would remain continuously deployed in Poland. U.S. Army 
crews that would operate and train with the Patriot equipment would 
rotate to the garrison and remain in Poland at least 30 days every 
quarter." The Polish Government does not feel the Patriot capability 
would be credible unless continuously manned -- either by US or Polish 
crews. In this version the Patriots would only be operational 30 days 
each quarter; citing the lack of warning in Georgia he noted there would
not be adequate warning to deploy troops to man the Patriot battery. 
(Comment: The US non-paper may not have this in mind at all -- another 
reading would suggest the battery would be manned continuously with 
crews rotating every 30 days.) Gagor concluded that events in Georgia 
would influence MD negotiations positively, but he restated that the 
Polish Government must still show that Poland's security is increased by
MD.

GEORGIAN REQUEST FOR WEAPONS 

6. (S) Gagor reported that Georgia has requested from Poland

WARSAW 00000953 002 OF 002

both air defense GROM 
launchers/rockets and anti-tank FAGGOT missiles, although he did not 
know the exact numbers off the top of his head. The request is now with 
Foreign Minister Sikorski for decision. Should Poland decide to provide 
the weapons, Warsaw would request US airlift to move the arms to 
Georgia.

FALLOUT ON UKRAINE 

7. (S) Gagor added that events in Georgia 
show we must accelerate NATO MAP for Ukraine in order to remove any 
temptation from Moscow to further expand its influence. Had Georgia 
received MAP at the NATO Summit, Russia would not have precipitated the 
situation in Georgia. Poland and the US must convince Germany to accept 
MAP for Ukraine. Ukraine and Poland are cooperating at the political and
diplomatic level to resolve the crisis.

QUANRUD