S E C R E T USNATO 000290 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2017 
TAGS: NATO, PREL, MOPS, GG, RS SUBJECT: UKRAINE, MAP, AND THE 
GEORGIA-RUSSIA CONFLICT Classified By: Ambassador Kurt Volker for 
reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 

1. (S/NF) Summary: As NATO Foreign Ministers gather
to discuss the Georgia crisis, we also need to look ahead at the 
implications for Ukraine,s territorial integrity and its bid for a 
Membership Action Plan. President Putin challenged Ukraine,s territorial
integrity rhetorically at the Bucharest Summit. Those words are now 
cause for greater concern as we look at Russia,s actions in Georgia. We 
therefore need to give a strong boost to Ukraine,s territorial 
integrity, reaffirm the Bucharest decision that Ukraine and Georgia will
become members of NATO, and begin to shape Allied thinking on a 
decision about Membership Action Plan this December. End Summary. 2 
(S/NF) Events in Georgia are coloring Allies' views of Ukraine and its 
membership prospects at NATO. Allies are divided on their perception of 
how the Bucharest Summit pledge of future membership to Georgia and 
Ukraine affected the current crisis. The German-led Allies argue that 
the Bucharest decision on eventual membership provoked the Russian 
aggression, while most others (including the new members and Canada) see
it as we do: that Russia interpreted the denial of MAP as a green light
for action against Georgia. 3. (S/NF) In the April 4 NATO-Russia 
Council Summit, Putin in his last days as Russian President implicitly 
challenged the territorial integrity of Ukraine, suggesting that Ukraine
was an artificial creation sewn together from territory of Poland, the 
Czech Republic, Romania, and especially Russia in the aftermath of the 
Second World War. He stated, "the Crimea was simply given to Ukraine by a
decision of the Politburo of the Soviet Communist Party Central 
Committee. There haven't even been any state procedures regarding 
transfer of the territory, since we take a very calm and responsible 
approach to the problem." Putin claimed that 90 percent of inhabitants 
of the Crimea are Russian, 17 out of 45 million Ukrainian citizens are 
Russian, and that Ukraine gained enormous amounts of its territory from 
the east and south at the expense of Russia. He added, "if we add in the
NATO question and other problems, the very existence of the State could
find itself under threat." Putin further questioned old borders and the
worthiness of political leadership in neighboring countries during his 
August 9 Vladikavkahz speech. These Russian challenges to the 
territorial integrity of neighboring states are inconsistent with the 
NATO-Russia Founding Act, the Rome Declaration, and take on profound new
meaning in light of Russian military actions in Georgia. 4. (S/NF) NATO
needs to be mindful of the connective tissue between events in Georgia,
Putin's threatening language on the territorial integrity of its 
neighbors, and Ukraine,s (and Georgia,s) MAP aspirations. For many 
Allies, the Georgia-Russia conflict provides new impetus to moving 
Ukraine into MAP and toward NATO membership, provided Ukraine continues 
to request it. Conversely, if the Kremlin achieves all of its objectives
in Georgia with few consequences and its international reputation 
intact - as Germany and others would have it - this may only embolden 
Russia to increase its bullying behavior towards Ukraine and others in 
the neighborhood. VOLKER