C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000571 SIPDIS E.O. 
12958: DECL: 08/15/2018 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, GG, RU, SW SUBJECT: TFGG001: 
DEMARCHE DELIVERED--SWEDEN CONDEMNS RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE INTO GEORGIA REF: 
STATE 87254 Classified By: CDA ROBERT SILVERMAN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B &
D) 

1. (C) Summary: A senior Swedish MFA official told poloff the EU is 
divided into two camps and the French have watered-down the GAERC 
conclusion. Unless the situation in Georgia worsens, the EU is unlikely 
to offer a stronger statement until after Sept. 6, when the foreign 
ministers will meet informally. Sweden wants international peacekeepers 
and observers to replace the Russian "peacekeepers" and will press the 
EU to send a mission. Current thinking is to use Sweden's chairmanship 
of the Council of Europe (until Nov. 2008) to mobilize support to kick 
Russia our of the Council of Europe. End summary.

Scuttlebutt on the Cease Fire Agreement
--------------------------------------- 

2. (C) On 
August 14, poloff delivered reftel demarche to Johan Frisell (strictly 
protect), Head of the Eastern European Section of the MFA. He is one of 
the MFA's main interlocutors in the Georgia-Russia conflict and attended
the GAERC on August 12. According to Frisell, Sarkozy's 16-hour trip to
Moscow and Georgia was a carefully orchestrated routine that resulted 
in the "Sarkozy Show." Although the cease-fire agreement was not ready 
after the 16 hours, France wanted a success story and prematurely 
announced such. The result was a flawed document with which many EU 
countries have taken issue. 

3. (C) Frisell said the French Chairman did 
not want to include the second paragraph of the first Council Conclusion
that mentions sovereignty and territorial integrity. Sarkozy likely 
agreed in Moscow to exclude this language, said Frisell. Also, principle
five of the agreement can be read to give Russia the right to take 
military action, "implement additional security measures," in Georgia 
for an undetermined amount of time. Certain EU states, including Sweden,
Frisell said, scrambled to insert a modifying paragraph that included 
"the international mechanism should be set up rapidly." As it currently 
is written, the international mechanism is poorly defined.

EU Split 
-------- 

4. (C) Frisell said there are two camps in the EU. One camp's 
overriding priority is to stop the suffering and ensure the cease fire 
is respected, that it is too early to judge or blame and the EU cannot 
appear biased. Members include Malta, Cyprus, France, Germany, Ireland 
and the Netherlands. The other camp says Georgia made mistakes, but the 
overriding concern is that Russia launched a full-scale invasion of a 
sovereign nation in violation of international commitments. Without a 
strong statement against Russian action, Russia gains legitimacy for its
actions. Members include England, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark, the Baltic 
states, Slovenia, Slovakia and Bulgaria. 

5. (SBU) Frisell said unless 
the situation worsens, the EU is unlikely to come out with another 
declaration until after Sept. 6, when the EU foreign ministers will meet
informally in Avignon to discuss EU-Russia relations. This meeting will
assess the consequences of Russia's actions and discuss possible 
reactions; no decision will be made on the EU's response at this time. 

Swedish support for Peacekeepers and Observers 
---------------------------------------------- 

6. (SBU) Frisell said 
peacekeeping was not discussed on the 13th. Sweden supports 
international observers and peacekeepers, but they must operate in all 
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and replace Russian "peacekeepers." Sweden
is adamant that some must come from organizations in which Russia does 
not have a veto, such as the EU. Sweden has received indications that 
Russia is willing to increase OSCE observers from 8 to 108. Military 
peacekeepers will be harder for Russia to accept, thus it is a good idea
to start an international presence with civilian monitors or police. 
Sweden is looking into how to propose this to the EU.

Sweden's Next Steps
-------------------

STOCKHOLM 00000571 002 OF 002 

7. (C) Sweden 
will state its position regardless of the EU's, said Frisell. Sweden, as
Chair of the Council of Europe, will seek to solicit support from other
Council of Europe members against Russia and in the next few months 
attempt to vote Russia out. This is still in early planning stages, but 
is a current goal of FM Bildt. 9. (U) Sweden's Advisory Council on 
Foreign Affairs, attended by the King, is convening on Aug. 18 to 
discuss the Georgia-Russia conflict. The Council only convenes when 
major Swedish policy decisions have been made to ensure that all 
political parties have the opportunity to voice their opinions. It is 
classified and does not make policy. It last convened in March of this 
year when Sweden publicly recognized Kosovo's independence.

SILVERMAN