C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002453 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 
08/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PBTS, MARR, MOPS, RS, GG, CIS SUBJECT: 
TFGGO1: RUSSIA REACTS TO GEORGIA'S WITHDRAWAL FROM CIS Classified By: 
Deputy Chief of Mission Eric S. Rubin for reasons 1.4 (b ) and (d). 

1. (C) Summary: Russian leaders have downplayed Georgia's decision to 
withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Russian Duma
Deputies and Federation Council members have argued that Georgia was 
only hurting itself by withdrawing from the CIS, and that neither Russia
nor the organization itself would be adversely affected by the move. 
MFA officials have stressed that they have not yet received official 
word of the GOG's decision, but have hinted at possible consequences for
Georgia. Indeed, Tbilisi's move might resonate more than officials are 
letting on. Russia attaches importance to regional institutions in which
it serves as the de facto leader, and has reacted strongly to previous 
Georgian threats to withdraw from the CIS. Georgia's decision has 
already prompted Ukraine to reexamine its future relationship with the 
Russia-dominated club. The complete withdrawal of one, and possibly two,
of its "western-oriented" neighbors from the CIS could chip away at 
Russian claims of regional hegemony. End Summary. 

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MFA Awaits Official Word; Will Russia React?
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2. (U) 
Shortly after Saakashvili's August 12 announcement that Georgia would 
withdraw from the CIS, Russian MFA Spokesman Andrey Nesterenko told the 
news service ITAR-TASS that neither the CIS nor the GOR had received 
official word that Georgia would leave the organization. He also pointed
out that, according to the CIS charter, member states had to notify the
organization 12 months prior to withdrawal. In an August 14 interview 
with the radio station Ekho Moskvy, FM Lavrov reiterated Nesterenko's 
point that no official word of Saakashvili's decision had been received,
despite the Georgian parliament's unanimous approval of the move 
earlier that day. He refused comment until official notification was 
received. 

3. (C) According to Nesterenko, the Georgian leader was 
"obviously struggling for his own political survival." He said the 
Georgian leadership was "impulsive" and "irresponsible." Nesterenko also
posited Georgia would be cutting itself off from many economic and 
humanitarian ties that the CIS had cultivated. Russia has made similar 
implicit threats in the past. When Georgia announced in 2006 that it was
consulting with Ukraine about withdrawing from the CIS, Russia claimed 
that there would be consequences for their relationship in economic and 
social areas. Furthermore, when Saakashvili announced in May 2006 that 
he had asked Parliament to review the benefits of Georgia's CIS 
membership, Russia responded two days later with a ban on the import of 
Georgian mineral water. Now, a failure by Russia to react to Georgia's 
withdrawal could be perceived as a sign of acquiescence or weakness by 
other CIS member states, particularly Ukraine. 

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Federation Council Members Dismiss Impact of Withdrawal 
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4. (U) 
Federation Council member Svetlana Orlova predicted Georgia's withdrawal
from the CIS would produce no negative consequences. Despite Russia's 
history of trying to compel Georgia to remain in the organization, 
Orlova added that Georgia brought "nothing but scandal" to the CIS, and 
the organization would be better off without it. By leaving, "Georgia 
was hurting only itself." Federation Council member Vadim Gustov echoed 
this sentiment, adding that Georgia was walking away from the many 
trade, economic, and energy agreements that it had negotiated within the
framework of the CIS. Various Duma Deputies, Federation Council 
members, and the CIS General Secretariat issued similar statements. No 
official has yet to suggest that Russia take any steps to punish Georgia
for its withdrawal from the CIS. 

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CIS May Not Be Affected, but Will Russia's Image Suffer? 
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5. (C) Vremya 
Novosti Political Correspondent Arkadiy Dubnov pointed out Georgia did 
not join the CIS until March 1, 1994, making it the last country to join
and the first country to leave. He told us that the CIS would be little
affected by the departure of Georgia, as Georgia had been a rather 
unenthusiastic member and the CIS a rather ineffective organization. 
Russia's relations with Georgia were sour prior to the conflict in South
Ossetia, and Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS would not make much 
difference. Head of the CIS and Baltic Center Leonid Vardomskiy also 
argued that Russia would lose little by Georgia's withdrawal from the 
CIS. Russia already had imposed an economic blockade on Georgia, Russian
exports to Georgia were at the same level as before Saakashvili came to
power, and a visa regime already existed between the two countries, he 
argued.

Comment
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6. (C) However, even if the CIS is moribund, 
Russia has always been eager to attach importance to Moscow's leading 
role in the institution and to the institution itself. Together with the
Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation 
Organization, Russia sees the CIS as a way of maintaining its dominant 
role in the region and its influence on its neighbors. In comparison to 
the events in South Ossetia and Abkhazia of the last week, Georgia's 
withdrawal from the CIS is seen as a slight blip in Russian-Georgian 
relations. However, over the long-term it has the potential to chip away
at Moscow's regional role, especially if other states follow Ukraine's 
example and start reexamining their membership, too. End Comment.

BEYRLE