C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000768 SIPDIS FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: 
DECL: 08/13/2018 TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, GG, AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN'S 
LOW-PROFILE RESPONSE TO RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN CLASH Classified By: Charge 
d'Affaires Donald Lu for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 

1. (C) Summary: 
Presidential foreign policy advisor Novruz Mammadov told the Charge on 
August 13 that Russia's military operations against Georgia are 
consistent with Russia's desire to regain its "empire" in the South 
Caucasus. Mammadov reiterated the point many GOAJ officials make with 
Embassy officers: Azerbaijan's more cautious approach to Russia is more 
sensible than Tbilisi's confrontational style. The GOAJ's public 
response largely has been quiet, with Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
spokesperson Khazar Ibrahim briefly highlighting Azerbaijan's support 
for Georgia's territorial integrity and the need to solve the conflict 
according to the principle of territorial integrity in an August 8 
public statement. Among the general public, the prevailing sympathy is 
with Georgia; many locals interpret Russia's recent military actions as 
part of a broader attempt to reassert its influence in the South 
Caucasus. The volume of people crossing from Georgia into Azerbaijan 
reportedly has returned to pre-conflict levels. End Summary.

President's Advisor: Caution Over Confrontation 
------------------------------------------------ 

2. (C) Presidential 
foreign policy advisor Novruz Mammadov told the Charge on August 13 that
Azerbaijan needed to react very carefully to the Russian military 
operation against Georgia. He began the discussion by showing a map with
Georgian cities circled in red where Russian planes had bombed. The 
pattern of bombing, according to Mammadov, made it clear to him that the
target was Georgia's oil and gas infrastructure -- both the pipelines 
themselves but also the perception that this route is safe and reliable.
Mammadov also noted that Russia's main objective is to block Caspian 
basin energy from reaching western markets. He emphasized that 
Azerbaijan's numerous energy facilities, including the Sangachal oil and
gas terminal, would be easy targets for a similar Russian attack. 

3. (C) Mammadov emphasized that Azerbaijan's cautious Russian policy is 
more sensible than Tbilisi's penchant for confrontation. According to 
Mammadov, Russia views the South Caucasus as a lost empire and took 
advantage of tensions with Georgia to assert its military strength. He 
noted that Russia is launching a full court press in the Russian 
language media concerning its position on the conflict. He advised the 
U.S. and Europe to work together to counter this Russian propaganda. He 
believes that the Russian attack was premeditated and is the 
long-awaited response to Kosovo independence and Georgia's aspiration 
for NATO membership action plan status.

GOAJ Keeping a Quiet Public Line
-------------------------------- 

4. (C) The official GOAJ response has 
been muted. On August 8, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) spokesperson 
Khazar Ibrahim gave a short public statement expressing support for 
Georgia's territorial integrity and the need to solve the conflict 
within the framework of Georgia's territorial integrity. On August 12, 
when Ibrahim was asked about Georgia's decision to withdraw from the 
Commonwealth of Independent States, Ibrahim only stated, "This is 
Georgia's decision."

Public Sympathizes with Tbilisi 
------------------------------- 

5. (C) Despite the GOAJ's limited public
response, the general public overwhelmingly sympathizes with Georgia 
over Russia. Although some criticize Georgian President Saakashivili for
an "emotional" decision to take Tskhinvali, Russia's military actions 
against Georgia reinforce the strongly-held Azerbaijani perception that 
Russia is an aggressive power seeking to reassert its influence in the 
South Caucasus. Reflecting the prevailing negative view of Russia, an 
article in the independent Zerkalo newspaper referred to Russia's 
military operation as a "fascist" undertaking. In the past several days,
there have been several small attempted rallies in front of the Russian
Embassy to show solidarity with Georgia. The police have broken up each
of these demonstrations.

Limited Outflow from Georgia 
---------------------------- 

6. (C) UNHCR Director William Tall told the
Embassy a UNHCR team deployed to the Azerbaijan-Georgia border on 
August 10 to monitor the potential refugee flow. Thus far, the UNHCR 
team reported a significant amount of people crossing the border into 
Azerbaijan, but the processing was stable and orderly. The majority of 
people leaving Georgia were foreign citizens living in Georgia, not 
Georgian citizens. The number of ethnic Azeris and Turks crossing into 
Azerbaijan was low, according the Tall. 

7. (C) U.S. Emboffs at the Red 
Bridge border crossing in northeastern Azerbaijan on August 13 reported 
that border crossing were back down to their normal level, which are 
approximately 300 per day. Local Azerbaijani customs officials reported 
that during the peak of the conflict, there was a maximum flow of 1,000 
people per day. An MFA consular officer deployed to the Red Bridge 
border checkpoint to facilitate individuals seeking an Azerbaijani visa 
reported that he only issue 20 visas on August 12.

Comment
------- 

8. (C) While it is summer and many GOAJ officials are on vacation, the 
GOAJ's limited public stance concerning the conflict tracks with the 
broader GOAJ preference for caution in dealing with Russia. Presidential
Foreign Policy Adviser Mammadov told us that it was convenient to have 
the President in Beijing and the other ministers on holiday as it 
reduced the expectation of a government response to this crisis.

LU