From: <a href="http://www.aftenposten.no/spesial/wikileaksdokumenter/article3965236.ece">Aftenposten</a><br>
Date: 24.7.2009

<pre>
S E C R E T SEOUL 001169
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958:
DECL: 07/24/2019
TAGS: PREL, KN, KS
SUBJECT: A/S KURT CAMPBELLīS MEETING WITH SENIOR SECRETARY
TO THE PRESIDENT FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND NATIONAL SECURITY KIM SUNG-HWAN
REF: SEOUL 01080 
Classified By: Ambassador Stephens. Reasons 1.4(b/d)

1. (S)
SUMMARY: NSA Kim told A/S Campbell during a July 20 meeting
that the ROK believed the North Korean regime could "hold on
for sometime" after the death of Kim Jung-il. In the case of a
total collapse, Kim unambiguously stated that North Korean
territory is part of the ROK and unification is the only goal.
Kim believed China had instructed North Korea to cease nuclear
test and provocations along the NLL/DMZ. ROK is monitoring
rainfall in North Korea and considering aid with "no strings
attached." The ROKG is also watching the current political
events in Japan with interest. END SUMMARY.

2. (C)
EAP A/S Kurt Campbell met ROK Senior Secretary to the
President for Foreign Affairs and National Security Kim
Sung-hwan for 30 minutes on July 20. A/S Campbell emphasized
the importance for close U.S.-ROK policy coordination towards
North Korea. NSA Kim said this is the first time North Korea
is "feeling the sanctions" and realizing the consequences.

--------
POST KJI
-------- 

3. (S)
On a possible North Korean government collapse, Kim said even
if something happens to Kim Jung-Il (KJI) the regime could
continue for sometime. Kim analyzed KJIs decision to appear in
public since May in obvious poor health as a warning to North
Koreas to prepare for change. In a post-KJI scenario, Kim said
the regime could continue if they could unify and put together
some type of collective leadership support, although there is
no history of collective government. ROK intelligence sources
have indicated that KJI is trying to slow down the succession
process. While it is uncertain if the DPRK leadership will
accept Kim Jong-un as the "heir," there is always the
possibility of someone else being appointed "regent" until he
"comes of age."

4. (C)
On possible post-regime collapse scenarios, Kim advised that
according to the ROK Constitution, North Korea is part of the
Republic of Korea. Some scholars believe that if the North
collapses, some type of "interim entity" will have to be
created to provide local governing and control travel of North
Korean citizens. For Kim, there was no ambiguity: the DPRK is
Korean territory and the goal remains unification. In this
scenario, Chinas reaction needs to be considered and
substantial international assistance will be required. Kim
noted the benefits of ROK-Japan-U.S. trilateral cooperation,
but stressed the need to get China to discuss contingency
planning.

--------------------
CHINA AND DPRK NUKES
-------------------- 

5. (C)
Speculating on Chinas reluctance to engage with the U.S. and
ROK, Kim said there are still those in power who supported
North Korea in the Korean War and these "blood ties" are
strong. Younger Chinese officials do not support current North
Korean policy but would prefer to see direct U.S.-DPRK talks
which would take the burden off of China. Kim said China would
certainly lose influence with North Korea if they supported
Five Party Talks.

6. (C)
Turning to North Koreas nuclear campaign, Kim said the North
Koreans had not removed any facilities from the caves near
Punggyeri. However, he believed that the Chinese clearly told
the North Koreans there could be no more nuclear tests.
Coincidently, activities along the DMZ and NLL have been quiet
for the last five weeks. Kim found it interesting that there
have been no further North Korean reactions to UN sanctions,
beyond the demand for an apology from the UN, This action was
further proof of the weakness of the North Koran Foreign
Ministry and was likely issued from another government entity.
A/S Campbell asked if the ROK had other lines of communication
with North Korean officials outside of the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs channels. Kim said not only is there no other channel
but that the current channel is strained due to discussions on
the future of the Kaesong Industrial Complex. He said the
North Koreans just want to talk about money and basically told
the ROK to let them know "when South Korea is ready to
pay."(See reftel)

7. (C)
Kim said the ROK is monitoring rainfall in the Pyongyang
region and is concerned that flooding will damage crops,
making humanitarian assistance necessary. If so, the ROK is
considering providing "no conditions attached" food aid.

-----
JAPAN
----- 

8. (C)
Regarding ROK-Japan-U.S. trilateral cooperation, A/S Campbell
asked Kim for an assessment of ROK-Japan bilateral relations.
Kim said Korea has good relations with the current government
but "history issues" (such as Dokdo) have complicated the
agenda. A/S Campbell urged Kim to reach out to the new
Japanese government soonest.

STEPHENS
</pre>