From: <a href="http://www.aftenposten.no/spesial/wikileaksdokumenter/article3955943.ece">Aftenposten</a><br>
Date: 11.4.2006

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C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000467
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958:
DECL: 04/11/2016 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PGOV, CE, NO 
SUBJECT: "GRIM" PROSPECTS FOR SRI LANKA PEACE TALKS
Classified By: Acting Pol/Econ Chief Doug Apostol, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

1.(U)
This is an action request. Please see paragraph 3.

Summary and Action Request 
--------------------------

2.(C)
Norwegian Special Envoy Jon Hanssen-Bauer hosted a Sri Lankan
Co-Chair representative meeting at the MFA on April 11.
Hanssen-Bauer outlined the current situation in advance of the
scheduled April 19 Geneva conference (so-called "Geneva Two")
between representatives of the Sri Lankan Government and the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Calling prospects of
the conference occurring as "grim," Hanssen-Bauer noted issues
(and internal pressures) dividing both parties. In addition,
he believes recent explosions (likely the work of the LTTE)
and the assassination of a Sri Lankan official by the rival
LTTE faction Karuna further fueled existing tensions which
would forestall the forthcoming conference. After the Co-Chair
representative meeting, Hanssen-Bauer met alone with Pol/Econ
Officer and candidly revealed that Geneva Two will likely be
postponed, if not canceled. He questioned the Sri Lankan
President's grasp of the situation and/or his intentions. The
Special Envoy voiced apprehension about the Janatha Vimukthi
Peremuna (JVP) efforts to demonize Norway through negative
propaganda, which he felt would increase should Geneva Two not
take place, as planned. Finally, he noted the LTTE political
leadership faced internal military pressures, which could
affect Geneva Two moving forward.

3.(C)
Hanssen-Bauer plans on releasing a statement encouraging the
parties to continue honoring existing Geneva commitments and
move forward with the Geneva Two meeting. He is encouraging
other Co-Chairs to release similar messages as soon as
possible. Post therefore requests the Department consider
issuing a statement urging the parties to attend the planned
Geneva Two meeting and recognize existing cease-fire
obligations.

Sri Lankan President in Delicate Balancing Act 
----------------------------------------------

4.(C)
Hanssen-Bauer believes that GSL President Rajapaksa must
balance internal political pressures (in addition to those
from rival parties) in any determination to continue the peace
process. Successful Geneva Two talks would improve the
President's southern power base (and may influence him pushing
for early elections).

LTTE Sending Mixed Messages 
---------------------------
5.(C)
Hanssen-Bauer finds mixed messages from the LTTE. Although the
LTTE indicates it wants to go beyond cease-fire talks and
eventually discuss other issues with the GSL (e.g. economic
development and democracy building), the first LTTE issue is a
guaranty of security for the Geneva-bound LTTE delegation,
which Rajapaksa has given. Hanssen-Bauer finds the LTTE's
greatest issue is for the GSL to disarm/disband the Karuna
faction. The LTTE feels that the GSL is "shutting its eyes" to
Karuna's operations, and speculates that Karuna may be used by
the GSL as a weapon in a war against the LTTE. The LTTE
concludes that the GSL armed forces, in addition to the Karuna
paramilitary forces, could defeat the LTTE militarily.

6.(C)
In addition, the LTTE asserts that the government's failure to
disarm/disband military groups (particularly Karuna in the
east) is a direct violation of the first Geneva talks.
According to Hanssen-Bauer, nothing has been done by the GSL
to address this LTTE issue. The Special Envoy feels that the
LTTE would accept the containment of the Karuna faction (and
not press for disbanding Karuna) as a precondition for the
LTTE proceeding with Geneva Two.

7.(C)
Finally, the LTTE Central Committee seeks the GSL's assistance
in arranging a LTTE pre-Geneva "strategy meeting" to be held
in Kilinochichi. Rajapaksa has refused to offer military
transport to bring LTTE forces to Kilinochichi, which
Hanssen-Bauer suspects is a result of the President's
perceived need to show that he is not "soft" to political
rivals. Earlier GSL governements have provided such military
transport. Hanssen-Bauer noted that the LTTE could be asked to
go to Geneva Two without the Central Committee meeting, but
the result will create a "negative" atmosphere in Geneva.
Norway supports the Central Committee meeting, viewed as a
means of preventing the LTTE's isolation (and resort to
violence).

8. (C)
Hanssen-Bauer spoke at length about his concern of increased
violence by the LTTE, specifically three incidents of claymore
mine attacks (most recently today). The LTTE-sponsored attacks
are apparently retaliation for the Karuna-sponsored
assassination of Vanniasingham Vigneswaran, a moderate Tamil
politician in Trimcomalee.

Frustrated Norwegians Resolved to Move Forward 
----------------------------------------------

9.(C)
Although Hanssen-Bauer is concerned with the recent acts of
violence, he impressed upon Co-Chair representatives the need
to move forward. Prior to the recent claymore attacks, the
LTTE advocated postponing Geneva Two. In his view, the GSL now
thinks the LTTE must go to Geneva, particularly given Canada's
listing of the LTTE as a terrorist organization. Norway will
issue a statement today urging the parties to go to Geneva,
and welcomes similar statements form Co-Chair countries. The
statement will essentially provide that Norway encourages the
parties to meet face-to-face and halt tensions, but such
decision must be that of the GSL and LTTE themselves.

10.(C)
The Norwegians view a constructive conversation at Geneva Two
as a means to defuse the charged climate. He viewed any LTTE
postponement of Geneva Two as likely leading to the LTTE being
recognized by the EU as a terrorist group. Most importantly,
he restated that the LTTE must cease its violence. He informed
the GSL that it must comply with its existing Geneva
obligations (including honoring the cease-fire).

11.(C)
Admittedly frustrated by both the GSL and LTTE demands on
Norway, Hanssen-Bauer has reminded them that Norway's role is
limited as a facilitator and, if "they are serious," both the
parties should enable each other to attend Geneva Two. He
noted that "Norway cannot make the meeting happen if the GSL
and LTTE do not want it to happen." Hanssen-Bauer, stating
that the atmosphere was "grim today, and hopefully positive
tomorrow" felt that if the parties do not meet on April 19, he
will advocate for a postponement, and not a cancellation.

"Low-key Statements" Requested from Co-Chairs 
---------------------------------------------

12.(C)
When pressed by the Japanese Ambassador, Hanssen-Bauer
envisioned any supportive statements from the Co-Chairs as
being both "low-key" and "outside the public eye." These
statements would be directed only to the parties involved, and
should stress the importance of Geneva Two. The parties should
thus meet to defuse violence and further implement the
existing cease-fire agreement.

Parties Need to Get Their Acts Together 
----------------------------------------

13.(C)
Following the Co-Chairs representative meeting, Hanssen-Bauer
met privately with Pol/Econ Officer. The Special Envoy started
the meeting by praising Ambassador Lunstead's efforts in
Colombo (particularly regarding the LTTE's military
transportation requests). The Special Envoy is troubled that
President Rajapaksa is either consistently uninformed or not
forthcoming. He also voiced concerns that the LTTE political
leadership is facing increasing pressures from the LTTE
military leadership. Hanssen-Bauer seemed particularly
concerned about the JVP, despite its recent election losses.
He believes that postponing or canceling Geneva Two will be
seen as a JVP victory, which has stepped up its anti-Norwegian
propaganda efforts. With the recent elections, Hanssen-Bauer
states that the parties have not had time to "get their acts
together" and focus on issues leading up to Geneva Two. He
concludes that Geneva Two will be postponed, or even perhaps
canceled. The question remains as to which party will actually
cancel/postpone the conference.

Visit Oslo's Classified website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/oslo/index.cf m

WEBSTER 
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